<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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Asia-Pacific

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

United States

Venezuela

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Iran

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Thailand

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Ukraine

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Oman

New Zealand

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Somalia

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

Employees work at a garment factory in Tiruppur, in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Sept. 23, 2025.

While the reforms will eventually create a more competitive, transparent and predictable labor market, the potential for uneven state-level adoption and protests will create challenges for companies in the near term. 

India's Labor Code Reforms: Opportunities and Implementation Challenges

Chile

Saudi Arabia

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

China and Pakistan released a joint statement on Jan. 5 reaffirming their relations as "All-weather Strategic Cooperative Partners," with Beijing praising "the comprehensive measures" Pakistan has taken to counter terrorism and protect Chinese interests.

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

Bangladesh's National Citizen Party, or NCP, a student-led group formed from the protest movement that ousted then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has forged an electoral alliance with the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami ahead of the February 2026 parliamentary elections, Reuters reported on Dec. 29.

Bangladesh: Student‑Led NCP Forms Electoral Alliance With Islamist Party Jamaat-e-Islami

A number of leaders within former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, have expressed frustration with Khan's refusal to negotiate with the government and his insistence that the party continue to protest and foment unrest amid its years-long standoff with authorities, Dawn reported on Dec. 26.

Pakistan: Khan's Enduring Influence, Focus on Protests Fueling Disagreements Among His Party's Leaders

India and New Zealand on Dec. 22 announced that they had reached a free trade agreement aimed at deepening economic ties, Bloomberg reported.

India, New Zealand: Free Trade Agreement Announced

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Oman, India signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement to strengthen bilateral trade and investment, Reuters reported on Dec. 18.

India, Oman: Governments Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

India's lower house passed legislation to open the nuclear power sector to private participation and allow foreign companies to partner with Indian companies and obtain licenses to set up nuclear power plants, Reuters reported on Dec. 17.

India: Atomic Energy Bill Passed in India's Lower House

India streamlined business visas for Chinese professionals by dropping a layer of scrutiny and cutting approval times to under a month, Reuters reported on Dec. 12. 

India, China: India Eases Red Tape To Fast-Track Business Visas for Chinese Professionals

Bangladesh's Election Commission announced that the country will hold parliamentary elections on Feb. 12, Reuters reported on Dec. 11.

Bangladesh: Election Commission Announces Election Date

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

Bangladesh: Student‑Led NCP Forms Electoral Alliance With Islamist Party Jamaat-e-Islami

Pakistan: Khan's Enduring Influence, Focus on Protests Fueling Disagreements Among His Party's Leaders

India, New Zealand: Free Trade Agreement Announced

India, Oman: Governments Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

India: Atomic Energy Bill Passed in India's Lower House

India, China: India Eases Red Tape To Fast-Track Business Visas for Chinese Professionals

Bangladesh: Election Commission Announces Election Date

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