<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

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U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

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Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

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Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Demonstrators on Sept. 5 mark a month since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka. The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more.

The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more. 

A Likely Delay to Bangladesh Elections Will Intensify Unrest

The Geopolitics of Water

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Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

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When can we expect elections in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina's resignation?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Bangladeshi Politics

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Economic coercion is becoming more prevalent in international politics, with certain countries leveraging their economic power to pursue political goals. 

Economic Power in International Politics

A Pakistani court sentenced former Prime Minister Imran Khan to 14 years in prison in a land corruption case, Reuters reported on Jan. 17.

Pakistan: Khan Sentenced to 14 Years in Prison Over Corruption

The World Bank committed $20 billion to Pakistan through a 10-year Country Partnership Framework aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable development, Reuters reported on Jan. 15.

Pakistan: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Plan for $20B

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Z-Morh tunnel in northeastern Kashmir, ensuring year-round access to the resort town of Sonamarg, which was previously cut off from the rest of the region during winter due to heavy snowfall, AP reported on Jan. 13.

India: Modi Inaugurates Strategic Tunnel in Kashmir

Earth's average surface temperature in 2024 was 1.60 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Service confirmed on Jan. 10. 

Global: Average Surface Temperatures Breached 1.5-Degree Threshold in 2024

Afghanistan's foreign ministry called India a "significant regional and economic partner" after Afghanistan's acting foreign minister met with India's foreign secretary in Dubai on Jan. 8 in the highest-level talks the two sides have held since the Afghan Taliban retook Afghanistan in August 2021, Reuters reported on Jan. 9. 

India, Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Calls India 'Significant Partner' After High-Level Meeting

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan instructed his opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party's negotiation team to continue engaging with the government, Geo News reported on Jan. 8. 

Pakistan: Opposition Leader Khan Orders PTI To Proceed With Government Talks

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that the United Arab Emirates agreed to extend a $2 billion payment deadline that was due in January, Reuters reported on Jan. 7.

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

The spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs said it had lodged a "solemn protest" with China through diplomatic channels over the latter's establishment of two new counties in its claimed northwest territory of Hotan prefecture, as parts of the two counties are in India's claimed northern union territory of Ladakh, Hindustan Times reported on Jan. 3. 

India, China: India Lodges Protest With China Over New Counties in Disputed Territory

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Khan Sentenced to 14 Years in Prison Over Corruption

Pakistan: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Plan for $20B

India: Modi Inaugurates Strategic Tunnel in Kashmir

Global: Average Surface Temperatures Breached 1.5-Degree Threshold in 2024

India, Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Calls India 'Significant Partner' After High-Level Meeting

Pakistan: Opposition Leader Khan Orders PTI To Proceed With Government Talks

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

India, China: India Lodges Protest With China Over New Counties in Disputed Territory

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