<p>To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.</p>

Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

Europe

Belize

Andorra

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Holy See

Latvia

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Albania

Slovenia

Netherlands

Switzerland

Spain

Montenegro

Monaco

Italy

Ireland

Iceland

Hungary

Kosovo

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The Ukraine Conflict

The Politics of Pipelines

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

The Fate of the Eurozone

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

European Disintegration

Echoes of the Cold War

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

United States

Venezuela

Egypt

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

China

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Ukraine

Russia

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addresses the Bundestag on Dec 17 in Berlin. Persistent internal divisions and narrow parliamentary majorities are forcing the dilution of key economic and defense initiatives, undermining investor confidence in Germany's capacity for reform.

Persistent internal divisions and narrow parliamentary majorities are forcing the dilution of key economic and defense initiatives, undermining investor confidence in Germany's capacity for reform.

Deadlock and Dissent Leave Merz's Reform Agenda Floundering

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Argentina

Brazil

Uruguay

Italy plans to support the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, reversing its earlier position ahead of an EU ambassadors' vote on Jan. 9, which would clear the way for the European Union to sign the accord with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay on Jan. 12, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5, citing sources close to the negotiations.

EU, Mercosur: Italy Ready To Back EU-Mercosur Trade Deal, Clearing Way for Ratification

Israel and Syria resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris on a security agreement after around two months of negotiations being frozen, Reuters reported Jan. 5. 

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin said in an interview with ERR on Dec. 29 that there is currently no indication Russia intends to attack the Baltic states or NATO and that Moscow appears to be scaling back provocations to avoid escalation.

Europe, Russia: Estonian Intelligence Sees No Immediate Russian Attack Risk to Baltics

The European Commission and the governments of France and Germany on Dec. 24 strongly condemned the Dec. 23 U.S. decision to impose visa sanctions on former European Commissioner Thierry Breton and four other Europeans, including leaders of organizations involved in digital regulation and countering online hate and misinformation.

EU: U.S. Sanctions Former EU Commissioner, Four Others Linked to Digital Regulation

On Dec. 22, the European Council officially extended the European Union's sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026, the institution announced. 

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

The conservative People's Party (PP) won the Dec. 21 Extremadura regional elections with 43.2% of the vote and 29 of the 65 seats in the region's legislature, up one from the 2023 election, El Pais reported the same day. 

Spain: Right-Wing Parties Perform Strongly in Extremadura Regional Elections 

Global Elections

Bolivia

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Dec. 18 that the bloc's trade deal with Mercosur would not be signed as previously scheduled on Dec. 20, with the approval delayed until January 2026, Politico reported on Dec. 18. 

EU, South America: EU Announces Delay to Mercosur Trade Agreement

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said France would not be able to adopt a 2026 budget before year-end after a joint committee of senators and lower house lawmakers representing different parliamentary groups failed to reach a compromise, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.

France: Government Fails To Adopt 2026 Budget, Setting Stage for Temporary Rollover

Europe

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Mercosur: Italy Ready To Back EU-Mercosur Trade Deal, Clearing Way for Ratification

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Europe, Russia: Estonian Intelligence Sees No Immediate Russian Attack Risk to Baltics

EU: U.S. Sanctions Former EU Commissioner, Four Others Linked to Digital Regulation

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

Spain: Right-Wing Parties Perform Strongly in Extremadura Regional Elections

EU, South America: EU Announces Delay to Mercosur Trade Agreement

France: Government Fails To Adopt 2026 Budget, Setting Stage for Temporary Rollover

Forecasts

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