<p>To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.</p>

Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

Europe

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Beyond Quantitative Easing

The Ukraine Conflict

The Politics of Pipelines

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

The Fate of the Eurozone

Banking

Crossing Borders

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European Disintegration

Echoes of the Cold War

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Assessments

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Economics

Military & Security

Politics

The agreements will institutionalize defense cooperation and ease trade frictions, though lingering political constraints will limit deeper integration in the near term.

The U.K.-EU Deal Signals a Strategic Recalibration of Post-Brexit Trade and Defense Relations

South Africa

China

Taiwan

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 21 during an official trip to the United States.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's U.S. Reset, Three European Elections

United States

U.S. President Donald Trump -- flanked by Vice President JD Vance (left) and Peter Mandelson, the U.K. ambassador to the United States (right) -- holds a phone call with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office of the White House on May 8, 2025. 

Global Trade

The agreement's narrow scope and quota system suggest the White House remains intent on restricting imports, meaning tariff relief for most other countries reaching deals will also be limited.

Trump Reaches First Post-Tariff Trade Deal With the U.K.

Supporters of the PiS party demonstrate April 12 in Warsaw, Poland. Poland will hold a presidential election May 18 and runoff June 1 if no candidate obtains more than 50% in the first round.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The outcome of Poland's election will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government will coexist with a cooperative president or continue to face institutional constraints from an ideologically opposed president.

Poland's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Snapshots

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

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Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Canada

Iran

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Indian soldiers stand guard atop their vehicle in Srinagar, India, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Pakistan-India Tensions, Canadian Elections and Pope Francis' Funeral

U.S.-Iran Relations

A digital illustration of the Chinese and EU flags.

Transatlantic trade tensions have created a window for tactical EU-China engagement, but structural constraints and unresolved disputes limit prospects for meaningful realignment.

Budding EU-China Rapprochement Amid U.S. Tariffs Will Have Its Limits

U.S.-China Relations

Russia

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Belgium

The European Union on May 20 adopted its 17th sanctions package against Russia, targeting nearly 200 vessels linked to Moscow's so-called shadow fleet used to bypass Western oil sanctions, Reuters reported the same day.

EU, Russia: EU Adopts 17th Russia Sanctions Package, Eyes Tougher Energy Measures 

Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's center-right Democratic Alliance secured the most votes in the May 18 snap election, winning 32%, ahead of the center-left Socialist Party with 23% and the far-right Chega party, which surged to 22.6%, Reuters reported on May 19.

Portugal: Center-Right Alliance Wins Most Seats, But Portugal Left Without Clear Majority

Centrist, pro-EU Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, who ran as an independent, won Romania's presidential run-off on May 18 with 53.8% of the vote, defeating far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) leader George Simion, who secured 46.2% despite having led the first round by over 20 points, Politico reported May 19.

Romania: Pro-EU Centrist Candidate Nicusor Dan Elected President

Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski from Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition won the first round of Poland's presidential election on May 18 with 31.4% of the vote, ahead of conservative challenger Karol Nawrocki, backed by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who secured 29.5%, Reuters reported May 19.

Poland: Government Candidate Trzaskowski Will Face PiS in Presidential Election Runoff

Energy

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union was working on a new package of sanctions against Russia that would target the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, more vessels linked to Russia's shadow oil tanker fleet, and the country's financial sector, as well as further reduce the oil price cap, Reuters reported on May 16.

EU, Russia: Von der Leyen Floats New EU Sanctions on Russia, Including on Nord Stream Pipelines

The European Union continues to demand further British concessions on fishing rights and youth mobility as part of a new, broader EU-U.K. post-Brexit cooperation framework, only days ahead of the London U.K.-EU summit on May 19, delaying finalization of a draft summit communique, the Financial Times reported May 15.

EU, U.K.: Post-Brexit Disagreements Continue to Complicate EU-U.K. Security and Defense Pact

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

The European Commission is considering simplifying the EU Artificial Intelligence Act's implementation following an expected upcoming review, though no fundamental changes to the rules are expected to occur, Politico reported on May 13, citing Kilian Gross, head of the commission’s AI policy unit.

EU: Commission Open To Amending Landmark Artificial Intelligence Act

NATO allies are advancing plans for a collective pledge to raise defense spending targets to 5% of GDP by 2032, Bloomberg reported on May 14. 

NATO: Members Working Toward New 5% of GDP Defense Spending Target

Europe

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Russia: EU Adopts 17th Russia Sanctions Package, Eyes Tougher Energy Measures

Portugal: Center-Right Alliance Wins Most Seats, But Portugal Left Without Clear Majority

Romania: Pro-EU Centrist Candidate Nicusor Dan Elected President

Poland: Government Candidate Trzaskowski Will Face PiS in Presidential Election Runoff

EU, Russia: Von der Leyen Floats New EU Sanctions on Russia, Including on Nord Stream Pipelines

EU, U.K.: Post-Brexit Disagreements Continue to Complicate EU-U.K. Security and Defense Pact

EU: Commission Open To Amending Landmark Artificial Intelligence Act

NATO: Members Working Toward New 5% of GDP Defense Spending Target

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