Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Military & Security

Politics

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 2, 2026

Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025. 

The KMT's diplomatic outreach to Beijing may yield modest economic gains, but it will also hurt the party's electoral prospects, which could paradoxically raise the risk of military conflict in the coming years.

The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire

Europe

Hungary

 A campaign billboard featuring a portrait of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is seen in Budapest's 3rd district on March 27, 2026.

Economics

Energy

Social Issues

Hungary's April 12 parliamentary elections are primed to be the country's most competitive national vote since 2010 and may remove Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party from power.

Hungary's Upcoming Elections May Unseat Orban After 16 Years

Americas

This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.

Environment, Science & Technology

As Washington formalizes a new hemispheric doctrine centered on security and supply chain dominance, regional governments face mounting pressure to align their defense and economic policies with U.S. geopolitical interests.

How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Iran

Israel

Yemen

Houthi loyalists chant slogans on March 27, 2026, in Sanaa, Yemen, as they participate in a protest staged to show support for Iran in its ongoing war against the United States and Israel.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis will likely progressively expand their target set beyond Israel if the war intensifies, raising the risk of more economically disruptive attacks on regional shipping and energy infrastructure.

The Implications of the Houthis Joining the Iran War

Cyber

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Cuba

Russia

People on March 15 in Tehran, Iran, clean up rubble from a missile attack. The Iran war will almost certainly continue through the next week amid Israeli threats to escalate and expand strikes due to Iranian attacks targeting Israeli civilians and the U.S. deployment of additional military assets to the region.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, a European Parliament Delegation Visits China

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

How will the trajectory of China-U.S. trade conversations change in light of conflict in the Middle East?

The Decision Advantage: The Impact of the Iran War on the Asia-Pacific Region

South Africa

A general view of power lines near the Lethabo power station between Vereeniging and Sasolburg, South Africa, on April 17, 2024.

Although South Africa's power sector reforms remain years from completion, their gradual advancement will still attract investment in energy projects that support the country's long-term energy security and decarbonization goals.

The Outlook for South Africa's Power Sector Reforms and Energy Security

Latest

Iraq

Iraqi women light candles in memory of the victims of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon during a rally in Baghdad's Tahrir Square on April 2, 2026.

Violent spillover from the Iran war will further complicate Iraq's government formation process, while disrupted oil exports will heavily strain Baghdad's finances and raise the risk of unrest.

Iraq Is Caught in the Crossfire of Another Destabilizing War

Snapshots

Myanmar

Myanmar's then-military chief Min Aung Hlaing prepares to deliver a speech during a memorial event at the Myanmar International Convention Center in Naypyidaw on March 28, 2026, to mark the first anniversary since a 7.7-magnitude tremor killed more than 3,800 people in Myanmar.

Myanmar's transition from military to civilian governance will not lead to a meaningful transfer of power, nor will it impact the country's civil war.

Myanmar's Government Transitions to Civilian Rule in Name Only

Nepal

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Global Trade

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

Italy

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Lebanon

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Ecuador

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on April 2 declared a new 60-day state of emergency in nine of the country's 24 provinces, including the province of Pichincha, where Quito is located, and Guayas, which includes the main port city of Guayaquil, DW reported on April 3.

Ecuador: Authorities Declare New State of Emergency in Nine Provinces

Beijing is investigating Ma Xingrui, a Politburo member and former Party secretary of Xinjiang province, for "serious violations of discipline and law," a euphemism for corruption or political disloyalty, Chinese state news outlet Xinhua announced on April 3.

China: Ma Xingrui Investigated, Most Politburo Members Purged Since 1977

Kenya

Kenyan Cabinet Secretary for Mines Ali Hassan Joho said Kenyan authorities would prioritize bidders that give "Kenya the best deal on beneficiation" in allocating the tender to develop the country's Mrima Hill mining project, the Financial Times reported on April 3.

Kenya: Government To Prioritize Local Processing in Tender for Major Critical Mineral Project

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Rwandan President Paul Kagame accused the Congolese military of maintaining an "intense" collaboration with the extremist Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, in a March 26 interview published by Jeune Afrique on April 3.

Rwanda: Kagame Lambasts Congo Over Collaboration With FDLR, Pouring Cold Water on 2025 Peace Deal

Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Iran was drafting a protocol to oversee the Strait of Hormuz along with Oman, even during peacetime, though there are few available details of what this protocol would entail, The New York Times reported on April 2.

Iran: Tehran Preparing Protocol for Overseeing Strait of Hormuz 

Australia

Science & Technology

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle struck the state of Western Australia, making landfall four separate times in recent days, disrupting major liquefied natural gas export facilities, including those operated by Chevron and Woodside Energy, which remain partially offline, with repairs at key sites projected to take weeks, the Financial Times reported on April 3. 

Australia: Cyclone Narelle Disrupts LNG and Mining at Inopportune Time

Jordan

Israel resumed operations at the Leviathan gas field -- Israel's largest -- for the first time since Israel's energy minister ordered the field to suspend operations due to security risks caused by the Feb. 28 start of the Iran conflict, Bloomberg reported on April 3. 

Israel, Egypt: Israel Resumes Operations at Leviathan Gas Field, Restarting Exports to Egypt 

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Palestinian Territories

The Palestinian militant group Hamas continues to insist on a guarantee that Israeli troops will withdraw from Gaza before disarmament talks proceed, reinforcing the group's long-standing demand that Israel eventually abandon Gaza in order to end the nearly three-year-old war, Reuters reported on April 2.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Wants Israeli Troops To Withdraw Before Disarmament

The U.S. military attacked Iran's B1 bridge, which connects Tehran with a suburb and was allegedly used to transport missiles, resulting in its partial collapse and reportedly killing eight people, Axios reported on April 2.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Attacks Iranian Bridge, Iran Hits Oracle Data Center in Dubai

In two separate presidential proclamations signed April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered changes to U.S. steel, copper and aluminum tariffs that would simplify the regime for low metal content goods and authorized new tariffs of up to 100% on certain imported pharmaceuticals.

U.S.: Trump Orders Changes to Steel, Copper and Aluminum Tariff Regime, Authorizes New Pharmaceutical Tariffs

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ecuador: Authorities Declare New State of Emergency in Nine Provinces

China: Ma Xingrui Investigated, Most Politburo Members Purged Since 1977

Kenya: Government To Prioritize Local Processing in Tender for Major Critical Mineral Project

Rwanda: Kagame Lambasts Congo Over Collaboration With FDLR, Pouring Cold Water on 2025 Peace Deal

Iran: Tehran Preparing Protocol for Overseeing Strait of Hormuz

Australia: Cyclone Narelle Disrupts LNG and Mining at Inopportune Time

Israel, Egypt: Israel Resumes Operations at Leviathan Gas Field, Restarting Exports to Egypt

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Wants Israeli Troops To Withdraw Before Disarmament

U.S., Iran: U.S. Attacks Iranian Bridge, Iran Hits Oracle Data Center in Dubai

U.S.: Trump Orders Changes to Steel, Copper and Aluminum Tariff Regime, Authorizes New Pharmaceutical Tariffs

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