Assessments

United States

Iran

Israel

China

Japan

Ukraine

A large plume of smoke rises March 7 over Tehran after explosions were reported in the Iranian capital during the night.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Takaichi Meets With Trump

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

What will happen to U.S. interest rates if the war continues?

The Decision Advantage: Economic Impacts of the War on Iran

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Energy

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.

Limited commando raids are Trump's most viable option, as larger ground incursions in Iran would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support.

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 12, 2026

Bahrain

People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.

A sharp rise in domestic sectarian issues and disruptions to key exports through the Strait of Hormuz are converging to threaten the political and economic stability of the kingdom.

Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions

Canada

Australia

India

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026. 

Canada's push to deepen economic and security ties with India, Australia and Japan faces constraints and may inadvertently strengthen the U.S.-led regional structure Ottawa is trying to hedge against.

The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships

North Korea

South Korea

Russia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during the Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 22, 2026. 

Kim Jong Un's latest directives suggest a willingness to pursue high-level negotiations with the United States and China in pursuit of critical economic concessions.

North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity

Europe

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil talks to the media before the start of an Eurogroup ministers meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 9, 2026. 

While the EU is making some progress on a capital markets union, a fully unified market remains unlikely anytime soon due to fragmented national laws and disagreements over centralized regulatory control.

A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles

Vietnam

How will election results impact Vietnam's economic growth in the near term?

The Decision Advantage: What To Expect From Vietnam's Leadership Election Results

Ecuador

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa at his "Shield of the Americas" summit, a gathering with heads of state and government officials from 12 countries in the Americas at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on March 7, 2026, in Doral, Florida. 

The United States' increasing interventionism across the Americas has led to joint military operations with Ecuador, which, if sustained, could successfully reduce cartel violence there.

U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism

Latest

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. 

A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships from Iranian attacks would likely begin only after the war's intensity decreases, and even then, it would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited return of maritime traffic through the strait.

The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts

Mozambique

Rwanda

Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021. 

Rwanda is unlikely to withdraw all its troops from Cabo Delgado in the short term, but a partial drawdown is possible if the EU doesn't approve fresh funding, which would degrade Mozambique's capacity to counter jihadist militants in the gas-rich region.

Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?

Lebanon

Smoke plumes rise above a village in southern Lebanon following Israeli airstrikes on March 16, 2026.

Even if it engages in direct talks with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to de-escalate its military operations in the country without major concessions on border security and Hezbollah's disarmament.

Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

Snapshots

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

European Union and Australian flags together.

Global Trade

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Unnamed sources at Afghanistan's forensic medicine department in Kabul said overnight Pakistani airstrikes hit a drug rehabilitation center in the capital, killing more than 100 people, BBC reported on March 17.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Strike Hits Kabul Rehab Facility, Reportedly Killing Hundreds

Ethiopia

The government of Somalia's South West state suspended all cooperation and relations with the federal government, accusing it of arming local militias seeking to remove the state's president, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, Reuters reported on March 17. 

Somalia: South West State Severs Ties With Federal Government Amid Reported Armed Clashes

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump late on March 16 told reporters that the United States had requested that China delay a summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping by "a month or so," Bloomberg reported the same day.

U.S., China: Trump Delays Long-Sought Trip to Beijing Due to Iran War

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro alleged on March 16 that Ecuadorian authorities had bombed drug trafficking groups on the Colombian side of the countries' border, DW reported on March 17.

Ecuador, Colombia: Colombia Alleges Ecuador Bombed Group on Colombian Side of Border

Indonesia

Indonesia is weighing policy response options as oil prices tick above $100 per barrel, which is inflating subsidy costs and weighing on the state budget, AFP reported on March 17.

Indonesia: Oil Price Spike Forces Fiscal and Political Tradeoffs

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu said no region in Russia is safe from Ukrainian drone strikes, Interfax reported on March 17. 

Russia, Ukraine: Shoigu Warns No Russian Region Is Safe From Ukrainian Drone Strikes 

Cuba

The Cuban government announced it will allow Cubans living abroad to invest in the country's private sector, El Pais reported on March 16.

Cuba, U.S.: Havana Further Relaxes Economic Rules Amid Grid Collapse and U.S. Pressure

Science & Technology

Ethiopia's Ministry of Transport and Logistics has called to accelerate the country's transition to electric transport and reduce its reliance on imported fuels, Addis Standard reported on March 17.

Ethiopia: Government To Accelerate Transition to EVs, Alternative Energy Amid Iran-Linked Disruptions

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Finland

Netherlands

Finland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are exploring a new multilateral mechanism to jointly finance and procure weapons, munitions and other military equipment with the aim of accelerating defense investment and expanding demand amid Europe's broader rearmament push, according to a March 17 joint statement by the three governments.

U.K., Netherlands, Finland: Countries Explore New Joint Defense Financing and Procurement Mechanism

Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel had assassinated Iran's Supreme National Security Council head, Ali Larijani, and Basij paramilitary force head Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani in a strike, NBC reported on March 17.

Iran: Israel Claims Assassination of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Head

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Strike Hits Kabul Rehab Facility, Reportedly Killing Hundreds

Somalia: South West State Severs Ties With Federal Government Amid Reported Armed Clashes

U.S., China: Trump Delays Long-Sought Trip to Beijing Due to Iran War

Ecuador, Colombia: Colombia Alleges Ecuador Bombed Group on Colombian Side of Border

Indonesia: Oil Price Spike Forces Fiscal and Political Tradeoffs

Russia, Ukraine: Shoigu Warns No Russian Region Is Safe From Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Cuba, U.S.: Havana Further Relaxes Economic Rules Amid Grid Collapse and U.S. Pressure

Ethiopia: Government To Accelerate Transition to EVs, Alternative Energy Amid Iran-Linked Disruptions

U.K., Netherlands, Finland: Countries Explore New Joint Defense Financing and Procurement Mechanism

Iran: Israel Claims Assassination of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Head

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