Snapshots

United Kingdom

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Economics

Politics

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

Annual

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

Forecasts

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Assessments

United States

Venezuela

Cambodia

Thailand

Ukraine

Russia

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

YemenYemenis rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council on Dec. 14, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Escalating tensions and potential violence between the Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed forces create security vacuums that Houthi rebels will likely exploit.



Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 18, 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

China

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Global Trade

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

France

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Tunisia

Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024. 

Despite tensions with union leaders, Tunisia's controversial finance bill will introduce reforms that attract foreign investment and increase production in key sectors.

Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

Latest

Germany

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addresses the Bundestag on Dec 17 in Berlin. Persistent internal divisions and narrow parliamentary majorities are forcing the dilution of key economic and defense initiatives, undermining investor confidence in Germany's capacity for reform.

Persistent internal divisions and narrow parliamentary majorities are forcing the dilution of key economic and defense initiatives, undermining investor confidence in Germany's capacity for reform.

Deadlock and Dissent Leave Merz's Reform Agenda Floundering

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Somalia

Syria

Afghanistan

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

Algeria

People walk through a main square in Algeria's capital of Algiers on Sept. 15, 2024.

By introducing Sharia-compliant debt instruments, the Algerian government aims to tap into significant informal savings and diversify its funding sources while avoiding external debt. 

Algeria's Islamic Bonds an Incomplete Step Toward Diversifying Government Revenues

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Iran

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Honduras

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

Columns

On Geopolitics

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Turkey

Indonesia

Philippines

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly outlined the 20 points of Ukraine's draft peace plan, RBC-Ukraine reported on Dec. 24.

Ukraine: Zelensky Details 20-Point Peace Plan, Eyes Conditional Referendum

Military officials from Thailand and Cambodia began secretariat-level talks in Thailand's Chantaburi province, with a possible defense minister-level meeting scheduled for Dec. 27 if technical frameworks are agreed upon, Channel News Asia reported Dec. 24.

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Talks Resume Under Thai Preconditions

U.S.-China Relations

China said it will take "corresponding measures" in response to U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports from June 23, 2027, following the conclusion of a yearlong Section 301 probe into Beijing's chip policies, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 24.

China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs

Cuba

Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed the shipment of 80,000 barrels of oil to Cuba, stating that it occurred pursuant to historic bilateral agreements and for humanitarian reasons, Efe reported Dec. 22.

Cuba: Mexico Confirms Oil Shipments Amid U.S. Blockade of Venezuela

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Interim Burkina Faso leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore pledged large-scale joint military operations against armed groups across the Sahel in the coming days in his new role as head of the Alliance of Sahel States, Al Jazeera reported Dec. 24.

Sahel: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Announce Large-scale Counterterrorism Operations

The European Commission and the governments of France and Germany on Dec. 24 strongly condemned the Dec. 23 U.S. decision to impose visa sanctions on former European Commissioner Thierry Breton and four other Europeans, including leaders of organizations involved in digital regulation and countering online hate and misinformation.

EU: U.S. Sanctions Former EU Commissioner, Four Others Linked to Digital Regulation

In a rare video message released Dec. 22, influential Malian religious leader Imam  Mahmoud  Dicko called on Malians to "rise up and come together" and end restrictions on freedoms and widespread hardship, RFI reported Dec. 23.

Mali: Leading Imam Issues Rare Video Appeal for Malians To Rise Up

Hundreds of people on Dec. 23 gathered outside Bangladeshi diplomatic outposts and visa processing centers in India's capital of New Delhi and eastern cities of Kolkata and Siliguri to protest the Dec. 19 lynching of a Hindu accused of blasphemy in northern Bangladesh, Hindustan Times reported Dec. 23.

Bangladesh, India: Bilateral Tensions and Protests Resurge Following Lynching, Activist's Death

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian told Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, Russia, that substantial and positive changes are underway in the South Caucasus, citing resumed rail transit through Azerbaijan and a new agenda to restore key railway segments connecting Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenpress reported Dec. 22.

Armenia, Russia: Leaders Tout Transport Links Amid Regional Geopolitical Shifts

Science & Technology

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

Russia has delivered an arms shipment to Madagascar's military government, Bloomberg reported Dec. 22.

Madagascar: Russia Delivers Weapons Shipment to New Junta 

Media

Finland

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine: Zelensky Details 20-Point Peace Plan, Eyes Conditional Referendum

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Talks Resume Under Thai Preconditions

China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs

Cuba: Mexico Confirms Oil Shipments Amid U.S. Blockade of Venezuela

Sahel: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Announce Large-scale Counterterrorism Operations

EU: U.S. Sanctions Former EU Commissioner, Four Others Linked to Digital Regulation

Mali: Leading Imam Issues Rare Video Appeal for Malians To Rise Up

Bangladesh, India: Bilateral Tensions and Protests Resurge Following Lynching, Activist's Death

Armenia, Russia: Leaders Tout Transport Links Amid Regional Geopolitical Shifts

Madagascar: Russia Delivers Weapons Shipment to New Junta

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