Assessments

Cameroon

Cote d'Ivoire

Tanzania

Argentina

United States

China

Japan

South Korea

Netherlands

Supporters of Argentine President Javier Milei's Liberty Advances (LLA) party wave flags during a campaign rally in Rosario, Argentina, on Oct. 23, 2025.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentina Holds Midterm Elections, Trump Travels to Asia

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.

A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant peso devaluation and heightened political instability, effectively stalling the administration's pro-business legislative agenda.


The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections

Global Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 23, 2025

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

The recalibration of the European Union's sustainability framework will ease near-term compliance burdens and costs for businesses but preserve long-term uncertainty.

The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies

Snapshots

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Australia

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump speak to reporters during a bilateral meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on Oct. 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump and Albanese agreed to tighten defense and supply chain integration as a way to reduce their countries' reliance on China, but industrial bottlenecks mean implementation will be slow.

U.S.-Australia Leadership Summit Yields Critical Minerals Pact, AUKUS Reaffirmation

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election. 

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in the Oct. 29 ballot, which is unlikely to turn violent but could portend wider governance challenges in the medium term.

Previewing Tanzania's General Elections

Venezuela

A poster displaying a photo of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen as members of the Bolivarian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise in Caracas on Sept. 20, 2025. 

The U.S. will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months. Other scenarios, ranging from a negotiated settlement to a decapitation strike on Maduro, are comparatively less likely.

U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela: Potential Scenarios

Iran

Syria

Turkey

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, hold a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Oct.15, 2025. 

Syria's outreach to Russia could lead to diversified economic and security ties, help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, and eventually facilitate small steps toward Syria's rapprochement with Iran.

Syria-Russia Reapproachment Reinforces Damascus's Non-Confrontationalism

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) attends a lunch meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump (R) at the White House on Oct. 17, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump suggest a significant U.S. pivot toward a negotiated settlement in Ukraine that prioritizes freezing the conflict and may involve territorial concessions favorable to Moscow.

Trump Signals Shift Toward Russian Position on Ukraine Ahead of Putin Meeting

Latest

Kenya

Kenyan forces stand next to the coffin of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during a funeral mass at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on October 19, 2025 in Bondo, Kenya.

Social Issues

The death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga creates a significant power vacuum, fundamentally altering the political calculations ahead of the 2027 elections.


What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics

A photograph taken on Oct. 10, 2025, shows Dutch election posters ahead of the Netherlands' Oct. 29 elections. 

Political fragmentation points toward complex negotiations and an ideologically unstable coalition, most likely led by either centrists or the far right.

Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Israel

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025. 

The U.S. will leverage permanent sanctions relief to pressure Syria to finalize a security pact with Israel, but the Kurds will resist integrating with President Ahmad al-Sharaa's government. 

U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Canada

India

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

North Korea

Vietnam

Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participate in a ceremony at the Pyongyang Sports Palace on Oct. 9, 2025, during Lam's three-day official visit to North Korea.

To Lam's visit injects fresh diplomatic energy into the long-stalled relationship with North Korea and fits into Pyongyang's gradual reemergence as an active player in regional diplomacy.

Vietnam's Lam Extends Diplomatic Balancing Act With Rare North Korea Visit

Bolivia

Supporters of Bolivia's presidential candidate for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), Rodrigo Paz, listen to him speak during a campaign rally in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sept. 30, 2025. 

With two right-wing candidates facing off in the Oct. 19 runoff, Bolivia is set for a significant policy shift toward austerity at home and a pro-Western foreign policy.

Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote

Peru

Then-Peruvian President Dina Boluarte arrives to deliver her address to the nation on Peru's Independence Day at the National Congress in Lima on July 28, 2025.

The interim government will struggle to quickly reduce crime levels and pass major structural reforms, while the upcoming presidential election will fuel policy uncertainty due to the crowded field of candidates.

Boluarte's Impeachment Unlikely To Improve Peru's Political and Security Climate

Columns

On Geopolitics

Palestinian Territories

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

Pakistan's government proscribed hardline Islamist party Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, or TLP, under the country's Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997, weeks after the party's members clashed with police during pro-Palestinian protests in Punjab province that killed five people and injured dozens of others, Dawn reported on Oct. 24. 

Pakistan: Government Proscribes Hardline Islamist Party Under Anti-Terrorism Act

The South Korean and U.S. trade teams are divided over how much money South Korea should invest annually in the United States to fulfill the former's $350 billion investment pledge, with the United States demanding $25 billion per year and South Korea claiming it could only invest $15 billion-$20 billion annually without a currency swap deal, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 24.

South Korea, U.S.: Dispute Over Investments Impeding Trade Deal

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave her first policy speech to the Diet, in which she pledged to raise defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product by March 2026, two years ahead of schedule, Jiji Press reported on Oct. 24.

Japan: Takaichi To Accelerate Defense, Household Spending

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that the United States was launching a Section 301 trade investigation into whether China complied with Phase 1 of the 2020 U.S.-China trade deal, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 24.

U.S., China: U.S. Probe Portends New Tariffs Over Phase 1 Noncompliance

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used his Republic Day address to reiterate plans for sweeping constitutional reforms that would create a unicameral, party-list parliament and reaffirm Kazakhstan's "strong presidential" system, KazTAG reported on Oct. 24. 

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Pushes 'Strong Presidency' Reform Amid Crackdown

Sudan

The United States is hosting indirect talks between the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, in Washington with the goal of establishing a humanitarian truce between the two sides and returning to the Jeddah peace negotiating framework, Sudan Tribune reported on Oct. 23 based on talks with several sources. 

Sudan: Several Outlets Report Start of Indirect SAF-RSF Talks, SAF Denies

Eritrea

Ethiopia

The Ethiopia-based and anti-Eritrean government Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization, or RSDAO, announced the graduation of new fighters after three months of military training, Addis Standard reported on Oct. 23.

Ethiopia: Anti-Eritrean Government Rebels Announce Graduation of New Fighters in Ethiopia

Burkina Faso

Mozambique

Nigeria

South Africa

The Financial Action Task Force, or FATF, removed South Africa from its anti-money laundering and terrorism financing "grey list" after assessing that it had met all the necessary actions proposed in a 2023 plan, News24 reported on Oct. 24.

Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mozambique Removed From FATF 'Grey List'

Science & Technology

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

Belgium

EU leaders failed to agree on a 140 billion euro ($162 billion) loan to Ukraine backed by roughly 190 billion euros in frozen Russian state assets during a summit in Brussels, following Belgian objections, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

EU: Belgian Objections Delay EU Decision on Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Loan

A Turkish court threw out a contentious court case that alleged there were procedural irregularities during the 2023 party congress of the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, or CHP, during which the party's leader Ozgur Ozel was elected, Reuters reported on Oct. 24. 

Turkey: Turkish Court Throws Out Case To Oust Opposition Leader

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Government Proscribes Hardline Islamist Party Under Anti-Terrorism Act

South Korea, U.S.: Dispute Over Investments Impeding Trade Deal

Japan: Takaichi To Accelerate Defense, Household Spending

U.S., China: U.S. Probe Portends New Tariffs Over Phase 1 Noncompliance

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Pushes 'Strong Presidency' Reform Amid Crackdown

Sudan: Several Outlets Report Start of Indirect SAF-RSF Talks, SAF Denies

Ethiopia: Anti-Eritrean Government Rebels Announce Graduation of New Fighters in Ethiopia

Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mozambique Removed From FATF 'Grey List'

EU: Belgian Objections Delay EU Decision on Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Loan

Turkey: Turkish Court Throws Out Case To Oust Opposition Leader

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support