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Israel

Indonesia

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

What is the outlook for Indonesia-Israel normalization, and what would that process look like?

Essential Geopolitics: Indonesia's Interest in Israel-Gaza

Assessments

Sudan

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum. 

While the likelihood of a humanitarian truce between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is rising, meaningful progress beyond a tentative permanent ceasefire currently appears unlikely.

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Palestinian Territories

Excavation crews work amid rubble in Hamad City, west of Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The extended timeline for reconstruction ensures dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza will likely persist for years, fueling future radicalization and significant population displacement.

Gaza Reconstruction Likely To Take Years and Fuel Palestinian Emigration

Chile

United States

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Cambodia

Thailand

India

Pakistan

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote. Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

Economics

Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (C) after chairing a National Security Council on Nov. 11 in Bangkok. An armed clash on the Thai-Cambodian border raises the risk of escalations that unwind the two countries' recent peace accord, though a return to full-scale war is less likely due to U.S. economic and security leverage.

While the most likely scenario is recurring but contained flare-ups through early 2026, a more escalatory scenario remains plausible.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Nov. 12 at 10 Downing Street in central London. Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Painful Upcoming Budget Likely To Amplify Starmer's Leadership Woes

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 13, 2025

Why are Venezuela's relationships with Russia, Iran and China so important to the United States?

Essential Geopolitics: The Primary Drivers and Constraints of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Energy

Global Trade

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Latest

Italy

Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on March 18 in the Italian Senate in Rome. Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Modest Growth and Spending Pressures Will Limit Italy's Debt Reduction Efforts

Canada

The clock tower outside of Canada's parliament building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario.

Canada's push to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties beyond the U.S. will likely see slow progress and could prompt U.S. retaliation, while the associated deficit spending will risk long-term fiscal strain.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Kazakhstan

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address participants of the 21st Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link during their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The deals signed during Kazakh President Tokayev's recent trip to Moscow will provide Astana with short-term stability but will limit its strategic autonomy and ability to further engage with the West, while heightening its exposure to Russian coercion.

What Russia's Courtship of Kazakhstan Says About the Shifting Balance of Power in Eurasia

Snapshots

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Columns

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

South Africa

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Tunisia

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

Ukraine

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Taiwan

China resumed a ban on seafood imports from Japan and paused talks to resume Japanese beef imports, according to Kyodo News on Nov. 19, while Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Nov. 19 noted that Beijing would retaliate further if Japan did not apologize for recent remarks about Taiwan.

China, Japan: Beijing Rapidly Expands Retaliations Over Taiwan Spat

Ukraine's military says it used U.S.-supplied ATACMS ballistic missiles to strike targets inside Russia, marking the first such use since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, Reuters reported Nov. 19.

Ukraine: U.S.-Made ATACMS Missiles Fired Into Russia for First Time Under Trump Administration

U.S. and Russian officials have drafted a 28‑point peace framework that would require Ukraine to cede more Donbas territory and accept force cuts, long‑range weapons limits and a rollback of U.S. military aid in exchange for U.S.-backed security guarantees, Axios reported Nov. 18.

U.S., Russia: Draft Peace Plan Pressures Kyiv To Cede Territory and Arms for Security Guarantees

U.S. President Donald Trump authorized the CIA to carry out operations inside Venezuela while reopening communications with Caracas, The New York Times reported on Nov. 18.

U.S., Venezuela: Authorization for Further Covert Acts Indicate Increased Likelihood of Military Attacks

Europe

Cyber

Science & Technology

The European Union's digital "Omnibus" simplification package called on the bloc to delay the implementation of Artificial Intelligence Act rules for high-risk systems from August 2026 until December 2027, streamline cybersecurity incident reporting and ease data privacy protections for training AI models, according to the European Commission on Nov. 19. 

EU: Commission Releases Proposal To Simplify and Delay Aspects of Digital Rules

Principal Secretary at Kenya's Ministry of Finance Chris Kiptoo said the Kenyan government was targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of gross domestic product for fiscal year 2026/2027, Reuters reported on Nov. 19.

Kenya: Government Halts Fiscal Consolidation Push in Runup to General Election

Air India is urging the Indian government to ask China for access to a sensitive military airspace zone in Xinjiang, which would shorten its flight paths as Air India and other Indian carriers face mounting financial strain from Pakistan's overflight ban, Reuters reported on Nov. 19.

India, China: Air India Seeks Access to Xinjiang Airspace Amid Pakistan's Overflight Ban

The German government approved its first national space security strategy as part of the country's plan to spend about 35 billion euros (about $40 billion) on military space capabilities by 2030, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 19.

Germany: Cabinet Approves First German Space Security Strategy

During Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Saudi Arabia would be designated as a "major non-NATO ally," elevating defense relations, Politico reported Nov. 18.

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Trump Names Kingdom 'Major Non-NATO Ally,' Signs Nuclear Cooperation Deal

Iraq

Syria

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Brazil's Congress approved a bill that limits corporate tax credits and implements stricter rules for social benefits, aiming to save $15 billion reais ($2.8 billion) by 2026, Folha de S.Paulo reported on Nov. 18.

Brazil: Congress Approves Spending Cuts and Tax Credit Caps, but Fiscal Concerns Persist

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Japan: Beijing Rapidly Expands Retaliations Over Taiwan Spat

Ukraine: U.S.-Made ATACMS Missiles Fired Into Russia for First Time Under Trump Administration

U.S., Russia: Draft Peace Plan Pressures Kyiv To Cede Territory and Arms for Security Guarantees

U.S., Venezuela: Authorization for Further Covert Acts Indicate Increased Likelihood of Military Attacks

EU: Commission Releases Proposal To Simplify and Delay Aspects of Digital Rules

Kenya: Government Halts Fiscal Consolidation Push in Runup to General Election

India, China: Air India Seeks Access to Xinjiang Airspace Amid Pakistan's Overflight Ban

Germany: Cabinet Approves First German Space Security Strategy

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Trump Names Kingdom 'Major Non-NATO Ally,' Signs Nuclear Cooperation Deal

Brazil: Congress Approves Spending Cuts and Tax Credit Caps, but Fiscal Concerns Persist

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