Media

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

Why is the United States involved in the mediation process? 

The Decision Advantage: Key Drivers of the Congo-Rwanda Conflict

Assessments

United States

Iran

Australia

Japan

United Kingdom

India

An oil products tanker at Muscat Anchorage on March 21, 2026 at Sultan Qaboos Port in Muscat, Oman. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.K. Elections, Iran War Resumption Risk

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

What are the key domestic pressures impacting U.S. strategy?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for U.S.-Iran Negotiations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 30, 2026

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street on April 29 in London. While a leadership challenge against the British prime minister is possible, policy continuity is likely no matter who governs.

Economics

While a leadership challenge against the British prime minister is possible, policy continuity is likely no matter who governs. Meanwhile, strong pro-independence gains are possible in Scotland and Wales, but not near-term independence.

Labour's Starmer Faces Bleak Local U.K. Electoral Prospects

Europe

Germany

Direction signs point to Germany and France in the town of Schengen where the 1985 European Schengen Agreement was signed on May 11, 2016 in Schengen, Luxembourg. 

The reintroduction of border controls by countries across the Schengen area is acting as a slow structural drag on the continent's economic competitiveness.


'Temporary' Schengen Border Controls Threaten Europe's Integrated Supply Chains

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

How are evolving cyber tactics reshaping the threat landscape for the Iran war?

The Decision Advantage: Iran, Russia and the Future of Cyber Warfare

Snapshots

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

Energy

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Iraq

Israel

A member of the Iraqi security forces stands guard next to a national flag as pilgrims march from the center of Baghdad toward the shrine of Imam Moussa al-Kadhim, the seventh of 12 revered imams in Shiite Islam, during an annual religious commemoration on Feb. 16, 2023.

Ali al-Zaidi's lack of experience and ties to a U.S.-sanctioned bank will complicate his attempts to form a government by the constitutional deadline.

Iraq's Prime Minister-Designate Likely To Struggle To Form Government

Mali

A digital illustration of Mali’s flag.

Recent attacks by al Qaeda affiliate JNIM pose a significant challenge to the junta's legitimacy, elevating the immediate threat of another military coup and signaling a progressive fragmentation of state authority as the jihadist group expands its reach.

Jihadist Onslaught Puts Mali on the Brink of Spiraling Chaos

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

The city skyline in Dubai is seen at sunset.

Although Gulf capitals are increasingly investing in mid-tier autonomy and offensive capabilities, achieving total strategic independence remains constrained by their enduring need for high-end American systems.

The Future of GCC Defense and Security Strategies in a Changing Middle East

Latest

An oil tanker is seen docked in the southeastern Iranian coastal city of Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman, in February 2019.

Chabahar is poised to transition from an ambitious commercial venture to a symbolic strategic asset, as India seeks to maintain long-term access and regional influence until sanctions conditions become clearer.

Expired U.S. Sanctions Waiver Threatens India's Chabahar Port Project in Iran

Kazakhstan

Russia

An aerial view shows the Kazakh village of Ulken (foreground), where the country's first nuclear power plant is set to be built, on Sept. 22, 2024.

Kazakhstan will seek to balance its reliance on Russia to build its first nuclear plant by partnering with China on subsequent projects and by leveraging new mining laws to extract downstream technology from foreign partners.

Kazakhstan's Strategy to Control Its Nuclear Future Amid Russian Leverage

China

A Chinese vessel participates in oil exploration.

While China has so far fared well, persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions would test its oil reserves and drive more defensive policies to secure growth, energy and export competitiveness.

Time Will Test China's Economic Resilience Against Iran War Shocks

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Cuba

A general view of El Capitolio and the Havana skyline on December 16, 2014, in Havana, Cuba.

A recent unannounced U.S. diplomatic visit to Havana bodes well for a deal that reduces tensions, but Washington's ongoing demands for political and economic reforms will sustain the risk of a U.S. military and/or law enforcement operation.

U.S.-Cuba Talks Progress, but Threat of Military Action Still Looms

Egypt

The exterior facade of the new headquarters of Egypt's central bank is seen at the New Administrative Capital megaproject about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo, on Aug. 1, 2023. 

Egypt will try to avoid submitting to another IMF loan program, which would likely require unpopular austerity and privatization measures. But the escalating economic impact of the Iran war may eventually force its hand.

Iran War Fallout Could Force Egypt to Seek Another Unpopular IMF Bailout

Satellite imagery shows a broad view of the Strait of Hormuz between southern Iran and Oman's Musandam Peninsula on April 7, 2026.

Pledges to reopen the strait will support U.S.-Iran diplomatic momentum and reduce near-term escalation risks, but shipping activity will recover only gradually amid persistent tensions, with a continued risk of disruption until a durable agreement is reached.

The Operational vs. Diplomatic Impact of the Strait of Hormuz's Nominal Re-Opening

Haiti

Debris surrounds a school destroyed by armed gangs back in 2024 in the Solino neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on March 3, 2026.

Haiti's extreme insecurity and political instability are highly unlikely to improve ahead of planned elections in August, raising the risk of mass unrest that could collapse the already weakened government.

Haiti's Security and Political Crises Heighten Risk of State Collapse

Argentina

View of the Perito Moreno Glacier at Los Glaciares National Park near El Calafate, Santa Cruz province, Argentina, taken on June 8, 2025.

By dismantling uniform national protections in favor of provincial oversight, Argentina aims to stimulate its extractive-export economy but will risk the long-term security of water-dependent sectors and the environment.

Argentina's Revised Glaciers Law Will Unlock Mining Investment, but Risks Environmental Degradation

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

The Emirati Ministry of Defense said in multiple May 4 statements that the United Arab Emirates' air defense systems were engaging with Iranian missiles and drones, which appear to have caused a fire at an oil facility in Fujairah.

Iran: Iran Attacks UAE, U.S. Claims It Sank Six Small Iranian Boats

Partial results from the Election Commission of India show that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party is on track for a third straight term in Assam state and is sweeping West Bengal state, defeating longtime opposition leader Mamata Banerjee, while the BJP's national coalition, the National Democratic Alliance, is leading in the union territory of Puducherry, Bloomberg reported on May 4.

India: Early State Assembly Election Results Come In

The Cuban government reaffirmed on May 2 its refusal to negotiate political or economic reforms with the United States, and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said U.S. President Donald Trump had elevated threats to "dangerous and unprecedented" levels, Deutsche Welle reported on May 3.

Cuba, U.S.: Cuba Says It Will Not Negotiate Reforms as U.S. Steps Up Sanctions

South Africa

Zimbabwe

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa made an unannounced visit to Zimbabwe, during which he met Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and some of his key allies, ZimLive reported on May 4.

Zimbabwe: South Africa's Ramaphosa Makes Surprise Visit Amid Escalating Tensions Over Constitutional Reform

Armenia

Armenia hosted the European Political Community summit in Yerevan for the first time, bringing together more than 40 leaders from countries including France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Ukraine, Poland and Moldova, Armenpress reported on May 4.

Armenia, EU: Yerevan Hosts EPC Summit Ahead of First EU-Armenia Summit

The United States began a mission to "guide" stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, calling on them to transit in waters near Oman through an "enhanced security area" that could include guided-missile destroyers, aircraft and increased troop presence, though details are limited, AP reported on May 4.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Begins 'Guiding' Mission for Vessels in Strait of Hormuz, Iran Launches Attacks

Indonesia

Vietnam

Science & Technology

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed agreements with Vietnamese Prime Minister Le Minh Hung to deepen cooperation on energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and space during the former's visit to Hanoi, Reuters reported on May 2.

Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam: Tokyo Deepens Strategic Foothold in Southeast Asia

U.S.-China Relations

China's Ministry of Commerce issued an injunction blocking domestic compliance with U.S. sanctions on five Chinese refiners accused by Washington of buying Iranian oil, state news agency Xinhua reported on May 2.

China, U.S.: Beijing Prohibits Compliance With U.S. Sanctions Over Iran

European trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic will meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris, France, on May 5, following U.S. President Donald Trump's May 1 threat to raise tariffs on EU car and truck imports to 25% from 15%, citing alleged noncompliance with the U.S.-EU trade agreement reached in July 2025, Politico reported on May 4, citing a European Commission spokesperson.

EU, U.S.: Trump Threatens Higher Auto Tariffs on EU, Raising Risk of Further Trade Escalation

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

The Pentagon announced plans to withdraw around 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany over the next six to 12 months, though it remains unclear which bases would be affected and whether forces would return to the United States or be redeployed elsewhere, Reuters reported on May 1. 

Germany, U.S.: U.S. Plans 5,000-Troop Drawdown From Germany, Cancels Long-Range Missile Deployment

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran: Iran Attacks UAE, U.S. Claims It Sank Six Small Iranian Boats

India: Early State Assembly Election Results Come In

Cuba, U.S.: Cuba Says It Will Not Negotiate Reforms as U.S. Steps Up Sanctions

Zimbabwe: South Africa's Ramaphosa Makes Surprise Visit Amid Escalating Tensions Over Constitutional Reform

Armenia, EU: Yerevan Hosts EPC Summit Ahead of First EU-Armenia Summit

U.S., Iran: U.S. Begins 'Guiding' Mission for Vessels in Strait of Hormuz, Iran Launches Attacks

Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam: Tokyo Deepens Strategic Foothold in Southeast Asia

China, U.S.: Beijing Prohibits Compliance With U.S. Sanctions Over Iran

EU, U.S.: Trump Threatens Higher Auto Tariffs on EU, Raising Risk of Further Trade Escalation

Germany, U.S.: U.S. Plans 5,000-Troop Drawdown From Germany, Cancels Long-Range Missile Deployment

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