Assessments

United States

Military & Security

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 22, 2026

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On Geopolitics

China

Europe

Economics

Global Trade

Politics

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Greenland

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Vietnam

Denmark

France

Switzerland

Ukraine

Russia

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Citizens gather to welcome the arrival of vehicles transporting Kurdish fighters from the northern city of Aleppo to the Kurdish-controlled northeastern city of Qamishli on Jan. 11, 2026.

The government's success in forcing the Kurdish-backed militia out of the city will likely reduce fighting there, but it may also lead to a larger localized conflict in the northeast that disrupts Kurdish integration and potentially oil exports.

In Syria, the SDF's Withdrawal From Aleppo Will Complicate Kurdish Integration Efforts

Snapshots

Romania

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 15, 2026

Venezuela

Taiwan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

U.S.-China Relations

Mozambique

Tanzania

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The Tanzanian government's harsh repression of opposition voices will maintain risks of civil unrest and siphon security forces away from outer regions, creating power vacuums in the south for jihadists to exploit.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

Iran

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland. 

The United States' aim to acquire Greenland risks triggering a NATO crisis if U.S. and European negotiators fail to reach a settlement.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Latest

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The reshuffle seeks to strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace deal amid weakening Western support and Russia's continued battlefield advances.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Sub-Saharan Africa

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Togo

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

A man walks past a billboard for the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam outside the National Convention Center in Hanoi on Jan. 15, 2026. 

The five-yearly event will likely codify a more centralized, security-anchored governing model, while setting ambitious goals for economic growth and administrative reforms, though internal and external pressures will hinder implementation.

Previewing Vietnam's 14th National Party Congress

Germany

Finland

Sweden

United Kingdom

Norway

Netherlands

The HDMS Knud Rasmussen ship of the Danish Navy patrols the waters off of Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 20, 2026. 

Trump's threatened tariffs over his bid to acquire Greenland have turned the U.S.-EU trade dispute into a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation, raising the risk of a sustained trade war that would severely strain transatlantic economic ties and NATO cohesion.

Trump's Greenland Tariff Threat Escalates Transatlantic Tensions

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Kenya

Madagascar

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

Syria's provisional government said 11 soldiers were killed in a blast it attributed to a drone attack conducted by the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, not long after the SDF itself accused the Syrian government of breaking a fresh four-day truce with attacks in the northeast, Reuters reported on Jan. 21.

Syria: SDF Reportedly Kills Syrian Troops, Despite Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Jan. 21 post on Truth Social that he had "formed the framework for a future deal with respect to Greenland" following a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Trump announced that, as part of the understanding, he would not impose tariffs against eight European countries that had been set to take effect on Feb. 1.

U.S., Europe: Trump Announces 'Framework' for Future Greenland Deal

Kazakhstan

Energy

Tengizchevroil declared force majeure on oil exports and cancelled five cargoes totaling up to 700,000 metric tons through February following a power plant fire that had halted production at Tengiz, the country's largest oil field, Reuters reported on Jan. 21.

Kazakhstan: Force Majeure at Tengiz Field Threatens Social Stability

New Zealand

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced that New Zealand will hold its next general election on Nov. 7, with Luxon seeking a second term for his center-right coalition government, AP reported on Jan. 21. 

New Zealand: Election Called for November

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

The European Parliament voted on Jan. 21 to request a legal opinion from the EU Court of Justice on whether the EU-Mercosur trade agreement complies with EU treaties, a step that pauses the ratification process within the bloc, Politico reported the same day.

EU, Mercosur: European Parliament Refers EU-Mercosur Trade Deal to EU Court of Justice

Australia

On Jan. 20, Australia passed a fast-tracked package of legislation following the December 2025 Bondi Beach attack, including a national firearms buyback, expanded hate crime and hate speech offenses, new extremist group designation powers and broader visa cancellation authorities, The Australian Financial Review reported the next day.

Australia: Post-Bondi Laws Expand Federal Powers and Fracture the Opposition

U.S. uranium and rare earths company Energy Fuels agreed to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, or ASM, a rare earths mining and processing company, in a deal worth around $300 million paid entirely with Energy Fuels stock, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 21.

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Mauritius

Mauritian Attorney General Gavin Glover rejected comments by U.S. President Donald Trump claiming that the United Kingdom's planned handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius was "an act of GREAT STUPIDITY," stressing that Mauritian sovereignty was "already recognised without ambiguity under international law and should no longer be a subject for debate," the BBC reported on Jan. 20.

Mauritius: Government Rebuffs Trump's Criticism of Chagos Islands Deal With U.K.

Military officials did not inform the South African government of Iran's inclusion in the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval drills held on Jan. 9-16 before Iranian outlet Tehran Times broke the news in late December 2025, News24 reported on Jan. 21 based on South African government sources.

South Africa: Government Allegedly Left in the Dark Over Iran's Participation in BRICS+ Naval Drills

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would skip the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to focus on the domestic energy crisis unless negotiators finalize pending agreements regarding security guarantees, a prosperity plan and additional air defense supplies, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Jan. 20.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria: SDF Reportedly Kills Syrian Troops, Despite Ceasefire

U.S., Europe: Trump Announces 'Framework' for Future Greenland Deal

Kazakhstan: Force Majeure at Tengiz Field Threatens Social Stability

New Zealand: Election Called for November

EU, Mercosur: European Parliament Refers EU-Mercosur Trade Deal to EU Court of Justice

Australia: Post-Bondi Laws Expand Federal Powers and Fracture the Opposition

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

Mauritius: Government Rebuffs Trump's Criticism of Chagos Islands Deal With U.K.

South Africa: Government Allegedly Left in the Dark Over Iran's Participation in BRICS+ Naval Drills

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Says He Will Skip Davos Forum as Peace Talks Stall

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