Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 12, 2026

Europe

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil talks to the media before the start of an Eurogroup ministers meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 9, 2026. 

Economics

While the EU is making some progress on a capital markets union, a fully unified market remains unlikely anytime soon due to fragmented national laws and disagreements over centralized regulatory control.

A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles

Media

Vietnam

Podcasts

Politics

How will election results impact Vietnam's economic growth in the near term?

The Decision Advantage: What To Expect From Vietnam's Leadership Election Results

Ecuador

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa at his "Shield of the Americas" summit, a gathering with heads of state and government officials from 12 countries in the Americas at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on March 7, 2026, in Doral, Florida. 

Military & Security

The United States' increasing interventionism across the Americas has led to joint military operations with Ecuador, which, if sustained, could successfully reduce cartel violence there.

U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism

Snapshots

Iran

Israel

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

Iraq

Jordan

Syria

Jordanian Armed Forces, U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces and other international forces conduct a combined Arms Live Fire Exercise on May 23, 2024 in the desert near Azraq, Jordan. 

As the United States prepares to withdraw its final troops from Syria, Amman will likely expand cross-border security operations to counter Islamic State and disrupt drug smuggling networks.

Jordan Likely To Step Up Anti-Islamic State, Countersmuggling Operations in Syria

Chile

Colombia

Lebanon

China

Germany

Greece

France

United Kingdom

Cyprus

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 2, 2026, after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top military leaders, prompting a new wave of Iranian retaliatory missile attacks across the region. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: War in the Middle East, U.S.-China Trade Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Egypt

Turkey

A an Iranian missile that landed March 4 near the Turkish border in the Qamishli district of al-Hasaka, Syria. Although direct strikes as part of Iranian regional retaliation remain unlikely, the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran threatens Egypt and Turkey with energy disruptions and security challenges.

Although direct strikes as part of Iranian regional retaliation remain unlikely, the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran threatens Egypt and Turkey with energy disruptions and security challenges.

Evaluating the Spillover Risks of the Iran War for Egypt and Turkey

Indonesia

Japan

South Korea

The U.S. Supreme Court in October 2024 in Washington.

The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's tariffs imposed under the IEEPA still leaves Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam vulnerable to other trade escalation mechanisms.

Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam Assess Their U.S. Trade Deals After IEEPA Tariffs

The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) on Feb. 25 at the quay of the North Port in Malmo, Sweden. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would increase Europe's exposure to security risks, including potential attacks on European-linked assets, renewed migration pressures and an elevated terrorism threat, particularly if European capitals assume a more active military or diplomatic role against the Iranian regime.

A protracted regional war threatens to expose the Continent to risks ranging from cyberattacks against critical infrastructure to a renewed influx of asylum seekers.

Prolonged Conflict in Iran Would Elevate Security, Migration Threats Against Europe

Members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) participate in a military drill in an outpost near Arbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, on Jan. 15, 2026.

Although arming Iranian Kurdish factions might increase pressure on Tehran, such an uprising alone would be unlikely to collapse the regime, while significantly raising the risk of drawing Turkey and Iraq into the conflict.

The Risks and Constraints of a U.S.-Backed Kurdish Uprising in Iran

Latest

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.

Limited commando raids are Trump's most viable option, as larger ground incursions in Iran would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support.

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

Bahrain

People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.

Energy

A sharp rise in domestic sectarian issues and disruptions to key exports through the Strait of Hormuz are converging to threaten the political and economic stability of the kingdom.

Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions

Canada

Australia

India

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026. 

Canada's push to deepen economic and security ties with India, Australia and Japan faces constraints and may inadvertently strengthen the U.S.-led regional structure Ottawa is trying to hedge against.

The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships

North Korea

Russia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during the Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 22, 2026. 

Kim Jong Un's latest directives suggest a willingness to pursue high-level negotiations with the United States and China in pursuit of critical economic concessions.

North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

European Union and Australian flags together.

Global Trade

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev met European Council President Antonio Costa in Baku to discuss energy cooperation, regional security and EU-Azerbaijan relations, according to a readout published on the Azerbaijani presidential website on March 11.

Azerbaijan, EU: Costa Visit Signals EU Bid To Bolster Azerbaijan Energy and Transit Role Amid Iran War Spillover

The U.S. Department of State notified Congress the week of March 9 of its intent to close the U.S. Consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan, claiming it would save $7.5 million a year and have limited impact on the United States' diplomatic influence in Pakistan, AP reported on March 11. 

U.S., Pakistan: U.S. To Close Consulate in Peshawar, Purportedly To Cut Costs

South Korea's National Assembly passed a bill to carry out Seoul's pledge to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects, fulfilling a portion of the U.S.-South Korea trade deal signed in October 2025, Yonhap News Agency reported on March 12.

South Korea: Investment Bill To Prevent U.S. Tariff Hike for Now

Three unnamed Pakistani officials said Chinese mediation in recent weeks has helped ease cross-border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with China's special envoy to Afghanistan shuttling between the warring countries for talks and China's President Xi Jinping recording a message in late February calling for the parties to halt their skirmishes, Reuters reported on March 12.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: China's Mediation Facilitates Ease in Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting

Far-right leader Jose Antonio Kast took office as Chile's president and promised an "emergency government" to fight crime and irregular migration to deliver order, liberty and justice to Chileans, El Pais reported on March 11.

Chile: Kast's Presidency Heralds Stricter Border Protection, Fiscal Discipline and U.S. Alignment

Mozambique

Rwanda

EU funding for the Rwandan deployment in northern Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, is set to expire in May, and discussions about a possible renewal have reportedly not yet been planned, Bloomberg reported on March 12.

Mozambique: EU To Decide on Renewal of Funding for Rwandan Deployment in Cabo Delgado

Papua New Guinea

Australia and Indonesia announced plans to expand bilateral security cooperation to include two new trilateral arrangements with Japan and Papua New Guinea, respectively, Reuters reported on March 12.

Australia, Indonesia: Security Pact To Expand and Include Japan, Papua New Guinea

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Lebanon does not prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel, Israel "will take the territory and do it ourselves," and Katz, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the Israeli military to prepare for an expanded operation, Reuters reported on March 12.

MENA: Israel Is Poised To Escalate Against Lebanon as Strikes on Iran Continue

Mexico's Chamber of Deputies rejected President Claudia Sheinbaum's proposed electoral reform on ‌March 11, La Jornada reported the same day.

Mexico: Legislators Reject Electoral Reform in Government's First Congressional Defeat

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

The European Commission rejected U.S. claims that the European Union contributes to global overcapacity after Washington launched Section 301 probes into the bloc, as well as China and other trading partners, Politico reported on March 12.

EU, U.S.: Brussels Pushes Back on U.S. Overcapacity Probe as Trade Deal Ratification Remains in Limbo

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Azerbaijan, EU: Costa Visit Signals EU Bid To Bolster Azerbaijan Energy and Transit Role Amid Iran War Spillover

U.S., Pakistan: U.S. To Close Consulate in Peshawar, Purportedly To Cut Costs

South Korea: Investment Bill To Prevent U.S. Tariff Hike for Now

Afghanistan, Pakistan: China's Mediation Facilitates Ease in Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting

Chile: Kast's Presidency Heralds Stricter Border Protection, Fiscal Discipline and U.S. Alignment

Mozambique: EU To Decide on Renewal of Funding for Rwandan Deployment in Cabo Delgado

Australia, Indonesia: Security Pact To Expand and Include Japan, Papua New Guinea

MENA: Israel Is Poised To Escalate Against Lebanon as Strikes on Iran Continue

Mexico: Legislators Reject Electoral Reform in Government's First Congressional Defeat

EU, U.S.: Brussels Pushes Back on U.S. Overcapacity Probe as Trade Deal Ratification Remains in Limbo

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