Snapshots

Spain

A National Police van is parked in front of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party headquarters during the Civil Guard's police search on May 27, 2026, in Madrid, Spain. 

Politics

Widening inquiries into public procurement and influence peddling will continue to weaken the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Scandals Linked to Spanish PM Sanchez Point to Continued Political Paralysis 

Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 28, 2026

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivers remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

Economics

Military & Security

Prime Minister Abiy will likely be reelected without sustained unrest, but escalating tensions in Tigray could still fuel a worsening security crisis in the Amhara and/or Oromia regions in a less-likely, higher-impact scenario.

Previewing Ethiopia's General Elections

Ukraine

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

Iran

The USS Rafael Peralta implements a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on April 26, 2026, in the Arabian Sea.

Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement, unresolved disputes and continued hostilities make prolonged, unstable containment more likely than a comprehensive, long-lasting peace agreement.

U.S.-Iran Talks More Likely To Contain the War Than Resolve It

U.S.-Iran Relations

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile are poised to benefit from the expected rise in lithium demand in the coming years, but they are unlikely to see a substantial surge in wealth without a more monumental market change.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 2

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile have had varying degrees of success in developing their lithium production capacity, with Chile achieving the greatest success of the three, and Bolivia lagging behind.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 1

Israel

Lebanon

Japan

Philippines

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Russia

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Cuba

Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche (center) speaks during a news conference announcing the indictment of former Cuban president Raul Castro, at the Freedom Tower in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2026.

Energy

Recent U.S. escalations against Cuba are creating a pretext for kinetic action, most likely a targeted operation to capture key officials, though an airstrike campaign and/or a ground deployment also remain possible.

Assessing the Potential for U.S. Military Action in Cuba

Greenland

Denmark

U.S. special envoy to Greenland, Republican Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry (center right), and Greenlandic mason and Trump supporter Jorgen Boassen (center left) are pictured in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 20, 2026, on the sidelines of the Future Greenland business fair. 

Ongoing talks with Greenland and Denmark will likely yield a deal that meets most U.S. objectives without requiring formal annexation, though a broader transatlantic crisis remains possible if negotiations collapse.

Can the U.S. Reach a Compromise on Greenland That Averts a Transatlantic Crisis?

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 21, 2026

Latest

Colombia

Supporters of Colombian presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda wave flags ahead of his closing campaign rally in Barranquilla, Colombia, on May 24, 2026.

A left-wing victory would portend increased social spending and policy gridlock, a far-right win would portend austerity and decree-based governance, and a center-right win would foster market-friendly policies and stability.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

A fireball and smoke erupt from a building following an Israeli strike in Tyre, southern Lebanon, on May 28.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The recent expansion of Israeli operations in southern Lebanon demonstrates an effort to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities prior to any finalized de-escalation agreements between the United States and Iran.


The Strategic Implications of Israel's Expanded Lebanon Campaign

The Japanese flag flies outside the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in central Tokyo on March 19, 2024. 

Monetary tightening will increase government interest payments and fiscal deficits, but the impact on debt dynamics and defense spending will remain manageable, provided the central bank avoids large-scale government bond sales.

How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact Japan's Debt Outlook?

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S.-China Relations

United Kingdom

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

United Arab Emirates

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Brazil

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump designated Brazil's two largest organized criminal organizations, Primeiro Comando da Capital and the Comando Vermelho, as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in a press statement May 28.

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Designates Two Brazilian Criminal Groups as Terrorist Organizations  

Despite reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had reached a memorandum of understanding, a May 29 report from Tasnim News, which is linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the text had not been finalized or approved. 

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Rejects Reports of a Finalized U.S.-Iran MoU

Malaysia

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is facing growing pressure from both high-profile and rank-and-file defections within his People's Justice Party (PKR), with roughly 6,000 former PKR members in recent weeks applying to join a newly revamped Bersama party led by former economy minister Rafizi Ramli, Reuters reported May 29.

Malaysia: Prime Minister Weighing Snap Elections as Pressures Mount

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, called for an intra-Sudanese political dialogue in his Eid al-Adha address 
and vowed to keep fighting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, stating that the Sudanese people would reject the outcomes of "conferences and dialogues of foreign capitals," Radio Dabanga reported on May 28.


Sudan: Al-Burhan Calls for Intra-Sudanese Dialogue as SAF Regains Initiative in Blue Nile State

Romania

A Russian Geran-2 drone struck a residential building in the eastern Romanian town of Galati on May 29, detonating its full payload on the 10th floor and causing a fire that injured two people and prompted the evacuation of about 70 residents, Romanian news outlet Digi24 reported the same day.

Romania, Russia: Russian Drone Strikes Romanian Apartment Block in Spillover From Ukraine War

Hungary

Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an agreement in Brussels, Belgium, on May 29 to unlock 16.4 billion euros ($19.1 billion) in EU post-pandemic recovery and cohesion funds for Hungary that had been frozen under the previous government.

Hungary, EU: Hungary Strikes Deal With Brussels To Unlock Billions in Frozen EU Funds

Palestinian Territories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the military to take control of 70% of the Gaza Strip, up from a currently estimated 64% and well beyond the confines of the October 2025 ceasefire agreement, The Times of Israel reported on May 28. 

Israel, Gaza: Netanyahu Orders Israeli Military To Take 70% of Gaza

Sweden

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will buy 150 Swedish Gripen fighter jets using part of a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) credit line, during his meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Uppsala, Sweden, Interfax-Ukraine reported on May 28.

Ukraine, Sweden: Gripen Deal Deepens Kyiv's Nordic-Baltic Defense Ties

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Russian President Vladimir Putin's state visit to Astana on May 27-28 produced a joint declaration on the "seven foundations" of friendship and good-neighborliness between Kazakhstan and Russia and a package of bilateral agreements, including accords on a $16.5 billion nuclear power plant and Russian export-credit financing for 85% of the project, Qazinform reported on May 28.

Kazakhstan, Russia: Putin Visit Highlights Kazakh Export Risks Despite Bilateral Pageantry

Guatemala

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo agreed to joint military actions with the United States against drug trafficking groups within Guatemalan territory during a meeting between Arevalo and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on May 19, The New York Times reported on May 28.

U.S., Guatemala: Arevalo Reportedly Agreed to Joint Military Operations Against Criminal Groups

Media

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Designates Two Brazilian Criminal Groups as Terrorist Organizations

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Rejects Reports of a Finalized U.S.-Iran MoU

Malaysia: Prime Minister Weighing Snap Elections as Pressures Mount

Sudan: Al-Burhan Calls for Intra-Sudanese Dialogue as SAF Regains Initiative in Blue Nile State

Romania, Russia: Russian Drone Strikes Romanian Apartment Block in Spillover From Ukraine War

Hungary, EU: Hungary Strikes Deal With Brussels To Unlock Billions in Frozen EU Funds

Israel, Gaza: Netanyahu Orders Israeli Military To Take 70% of Gaza

Ukraine, Sweden: Gripen Deal Deepens Kyiv's Nordic-Baltic Defense Ties

Kazakhstan, Russia: Putin Visit Highlights Kazakh Export Risks Despite Bilateral Pageantry

U.S., Guatemala: Arevalo Reportedly Agreed to Joint Military Operations Against Criminal Groups

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