Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 21, 2026

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Could a single AI model render decades of corporate cybersecurity obsolete overnight?

The Decision Advantage: Will Mythos Change the Cybersecurity Landscape for Better or for Worse? 

Egypt

Iran

Israel

Jordan

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

United Kingdom

Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Israel's quest for middle-power status will be defined by its ability to unify its Jerusalem core, which has remained divided throughout the modern state's history.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Social Issues

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Gulf states' push to employ more local citizens in the private sector will help advance their economies and reduce public wage bills, but it will also create new risks for businesses that have traditionally relied on cheap foreign labor.

The Future of Work in the GCC: Localization, Competition and Business Risks

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

Mexico

China

Japan

South Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 3, 2025, in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Middle East, Putin Heads to Beijing

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Afghanistan

India

Pakistan

Afghan protesters burn a Pakistani flag during a demonstration in Helmand Province in 2016.

Gains from the Afghan Taliban's growing regional ties will be hindered by enduring disputes, logistical constraints, infrastructure security risks, and Pakistan's possible absence from future multilateral engagements.

How the Afghan-Pakistani Conflict Is Redrawing Regional Relations

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 14, 2026

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Latest

Greenland

Denmark

U.S. special envoy to Greenland, Republican Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry (center right), and Greenlandic mason and Trump supporter Jorgen Boassen (center left) are pictured in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 20, 2026, on the sidelines of the Future Greenland business fair. 

Ongoing talks with Greenland and Denmark will likely yield a deal that meets most U.S. objectives without requiring formal annexation, though a broader transatlantic crisis remains possible if negotiations collapse.

Can the U.S. Reach a Compromise on Greenland That Averts a Transatlantic Crisis?

Germany

Slovenia

Spain

Ireland

Hungary

The EU and Israeli flags in March 2024 in central Berlin's Rotes Rathaus. Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Targeted EU Sanctions on Israeli Settlers Unlikely To Broaden Into Wider Restrictions 

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

Energy

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

The Japanese flag flies outside the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in central Tokyo on March 19, 2024. 

Monetary tightening will increase government interest payments and fiscal deficits, but the impact on debt dynamics and defense spending will remain manageable, provided the central bank avoids large-scale government bond sales.

How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact Japan's Debt Outlook?

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Israel's May 16 assassination of Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad has triggered a power struggle within the Palestinian militant group, according to sources cited in a May 21 report in The National.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Report Details Hamas Infighting in Wake of Military Chief's Assassination

North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Pyongyang, North Korea, to speak with supreme leader Kim Jong Un as soon as late May or early June, according to senior government officials cited by South Korea's Yonhap news agency.

China, North Korea: Xi May Visit Pyongyang to Preempt Trump-Kim Talks

The Mexican government submitted proposed changes to Congress to the judicial reform approved in 2024, El Pais reported May 20.

Mexico: Government Proposes Changes to Judicial Reform

A court in Kazakhstan has recognized and allowed enforcement of an arbitration award in favor of Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz against Russia's Gazprom, Reuters reported May 21.

Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine: Court Ruling Opens Naftogaz's Hunt for Gazprom Assets in Kazakhstan

Mali

The Malian army, alongside Russia's Africa Corps, reportedly used cluster munitions for the first time during military operations against jihadist and separatist groups in the country's north, RFI reported May 20.

Mali: Army Reportedly Uses Cluster Bombs for First Time

Taiwan

China is delaying approval for a summer visit to Beijing by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby until President Donald Trump makes a decision on a pending $14 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, according to sources cited in a May 20 Financial Times report.

China, U.S., Taiwan: Colby Visit Hinges on Arms Sale, Trump Vows to Talk With Lai

The latest U.S. negotiation proposal has "narrowed the gaps" between U.S. and Iranian demands, though some gaps remain, according to the Iranian Students' News Agency cited by Bloomberg on May 21.

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Says Latest U.S. Proposal 'Narrows Gaps'

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 19-20 in Beijing, Ria Novosti reported.

Russia, China: Putin Visit Shows Deepening Alignment With China, but No Gas Breakthrough Occurs

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Cuba

A U.S. federal court in Miami, Florida, on May 20 indicted former Cuban President Raul Castro on one count of conspiracy against U.S. citizens, four counts of murder, and two counts of destruction of aircraft related to a 1996 incident in which Cuban jets shot down planes that were operated by Cuban exiles, Reuters reported the same day.

U.S., Cuba: U.S. Court Indicts Former Cuban President on Murder Charges

Indonesia

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto laid out new regulations before parliament to centralize exports of strategic natural resource commodities through PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia, a new state-owned company under the executive branch-run sovereign wealth fund Danantara, Reuters reported May 20.

Indonesia: Government Follows Through on Heavy-Handed Commodity Export Oversight

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Can the U.S. Reach a Compromise on Greenland That Averts a Transatlantic Crisis?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Report Details Hamas Infighting in Wake of Military Chief's Assassination

China, North Korea: Xi May Visit Pyongyang to Preempt Trump-Kim Talks

Mexico: Government Proposes Changes to Judicial Reform

Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine: Court Ruling Opens Naftogaz's Hunt for Gazprom Assets in Kazakhstan

Mali: Army Reportedly Uses Cluster Bombs for First Time

China, U.S., Taiwan: Colby Visit Hinges on Arms Sale, Trump Vows to Talk With Lai

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Says Latest U.S. Proposal 'Narrows Gaps'

Russia, China: Putin Visit Shows Deepening Alignment With China, but No Gas Breakthrough Occurs

U.S., Cuba: U.S. Court Indicts Former Cuban President on Murder Charges

Indonesia: Government Follows Through on Heavy-Handed Commodity Export Oversight

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