Assessments

Ukraine

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Japan

Philippines

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Russia

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Cuba

Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche (center) speaks during a news conference announcing the indictment of former Cuban president Raul Castro, at the Freedom Tower in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2026.

Energy

Recent U.S. escalations against Cuba are creating a pretext for kinetic action, most likely a targeted operation to capture key officials, though an airstrike campaign and/or a ground deployment also remain possible.

Assessing the Potential for U.S. Military Action in Cuba

Greenland

Denmark

U.S. special envoy to Greenland, Republican Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry (center right), and Greenlandic mason and Trump supporter Jorgen Boassen (center left) are pictured in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 20, 2026, on the sidelines of the Future Greenland business fair. 

Ongoing talks with Greenland and Denmark will likely yield a deal that meets most U.S. objectives without requiring formal annexation, though a broader transatlantic crisis remains possible if negotiations collapse.

Can the U.S. Reach a Compromise on Greenland That Averts a Transatlantic Crisis?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 21, 2026

Snapshots

The Japanese flag flies outside the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in central Tokyo on March 19, 2024. 

Monetary tightening will increase government interest payments and fiscal deficits, but the impact on debt dynamics and defense spending will remain manageable, provided the central bank avoids large-scale government bond sales.

How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact Japan's Debt Outlook?

Palestinian Territories

Germany

United Kingdom

Slovenia

Spain

Ireland

Hungary

The EU and Israeli flags in March 2024 in central Berlin's Rotes Rathaus. Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Targeted EU Sanctions on Israeli Settlers Unlikely To Broaden Into Wider Restrictions 

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Could a single AI model render decades of corporate cybersecurity obsolete overnight?

The Decision Advantage: Will Mythos Change the Cybersecurity Landscape for Better or for Worse? 

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

Egypt

Jordan

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.

Israel's quest for middle-power status will be defined by its ability to unify its Jerusalem core, which has remained divided throughout the modern state's history.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Social Issues

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Gulf states' push to employ more local citizens in the private sector will help advance their economies and reduce public wage bills, but it will also create new risks for businesses that have traditionally relied on cheap foreign labor.

The Future of Work in the GCC: Localization, Competition and Business Risks

Latest

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Global Trade

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile are poised to benefit from the expected rise in lithium demand in the coming years, but they are unlikely to see a substantial surge in wealth without a more monumental market change.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 2

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile have had varying degrees of success in developing their lithium production capacity, with Chile achieving the greatest success of the three, and Bolivia lagging behind.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 1

The USS Rafael Peralta implements a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on April 26, 2026, in the Arabian Sea.

Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement, unresolved disputes and continued hostilities make prolonged, unstable containment more likely than a comprehensive, long-lasting peace agreement.

U.S.-Iran Talks More Likely To Contain the War Than Resolve It

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent U.S. President Donald Trump a letter warning that Ukraine's shortage of air defense systems is worsening, with the most acute need being Patriot PAC-3 interceptors and other systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, the Kyiv Independent reported on May 27.

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Warns Trump of Critical Patriot Shortages

Taiwan

The Taiwan People's Party on May 27 posted a notice on its website stating that TPP head Huang Kuo-chang had sent a letter to U.S. members of Congress calling for the U.S. Six Assurances to be codified into law, adding that "The U.S. commitment to Taiwan should be enduring and principled -- not an option to be bargained away through diplomatic horse-trading."

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Rejects U.S. Arms Sales as China Negotiating Chip

The Gaza-based Palestinian group Hamas confirmed on May 27 that a May 26 Israeli military operation had killed Mohammed Odeh, the commander of Hamas' military wing, the BBC reported.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Assassinates Second Hamas Military Chief in Under Two Weeks

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa asked the Western Cape High Court to set aside the Section 89 panel report, which advised that he face an impeachment inquiry surrounding his actions following a robbery at his Phala Phala farm, on several legal grounds, News24 reported on May 27.

South Africa: Ramaphosa Requests Dismissal of Impeachment Report, Vows To Block Proceedings

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Kenya

Science & Technology

The United States is looking to set up a quarantine facility in Kenya for U.S. nationals exposed to Ebola or having tested positive for the virus, a proposal yet to be approved by the Kenyan government, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 26, quoting sources familiar with the matter.

U.S., Kenya, Congo: U.S. Eyes Quarantine Facility in Kenya as Cases Grow, New Vaccine Emerges

Poland

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a new defense and security treaty in London, United Kingdom, on May 27, according to statements from both governments the same day.

Poland, U.K.: New Treaty Deepens Defense and Security Ties

Indonesia

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived in France for a state visit that Indonesia's foreign ministry said would conclude with the two countries upgrading ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the Jakarta Globe reported on May 27.

France, Indonesia: Paris, Jakarta Likely To Upgrade Ties

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, or OPCW, said it, along with Syria's provisional government, had found dozens of undeclared chemical weapons across Syria hidden during the rule of ousted President Bashar al Assad, The Defense Post reported on May 26.

Syria: Assad-Era Chemical Weapons Recovered

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Senegal

Senegal's National Assembly overwhelmingly elected former Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko as speaker of parliament with 132 of 133 votes cast after reinstating him as a member of parliament, days after his dismissal from government, Bloomberg reported on May 26.

Senegal: Dismissed PM Sonko Appointed Speaker of Parliament, Worsening Political Tensions

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan signed a draft framework agreement on U.S.-Armenian cooperation over the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity and signed a memorandum on critical minerals and rare earths during Rubio's one-hour visit to Yerevan, Armenpress reported May 26.

U.S., Armenia: Countries Sign Partnership Deal Ahead of Armenian Elections

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

U.S.-Iran Talks More Likely To Contain the War Than Resolve It

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Warns Trump of Critical Patriot Shortages

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Rejects U.S. Arms Sales as China Negotiating Chip

Israel, Gaza: Israel Assassinates Second Hamas Military Chief in Under Two Weeks

South Africa: Ramaphosa Requests Dismissal of Impeachment Report, Vows To Block Proceedings

U.S., Kenya, Congo: U.S. Eyes Quarantine Facility in Kenya as Cases Grow, New Vaccine Emerges

Poland, U.K.: New Treaty Deepens Defense and Security Ties

France, Indonesia: Paris, Jakarta Likely To Upgrade Ties

Syria: Assad-Era Chemical Weapons Recovered

Senegal: Dismissed PM Sonko Appointed Speaker of Parliament, Worsening Political Tensions

U.S., Armenia: Countries Sign Partnership Deal Ahead of Armenian Elections

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