Assessments

Nigeria

Zambia

United States

Iran

Morocco

Oman

China

Europe

Spain

Migrants wait to receive water on a beach in the North African Spanish enclave of Ceuta on Aug. 2, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Extreme Weather in China and Europe, More Migrant Crossings Into Spain

Media

Australia

Fiji

Solomon Islands

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Podcasts

Who are the main players, and what are the primary frameworks holding it all together?

The Decision Advantage: The Security Architecture of the Pacific Islands

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

The parliament building is seen through a European flag during a demonstration against a judicial reform pushed by lawmakers of the ruling Law and Justice party on Jan. 23, 2020, in Warsaw, Poland. 

Social Issues

Poland's right-wing opposition parties remain well-positioned to win a majority in the 2027 general election, though growing fragmentation among these parties will hinder postelection coalition talks, potentially leading to a government that includes far-right elements.

How Poland's Right-Wing Split Alters the 2027 Election Landscape

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 6, 2026

Greenland

Denmark

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Economics

Energy

Greenland's large deposits of critical minerals make the island one of the few potential alternatives to Chinese supply chains, but material constraints and diplomatic disputes will obstruct large-scale production.

The West's Quest To Exploit Greenland's Critical Minerals

Japan

Philippines

Taiwan

A Chinese coast guard vessel is anchored in the waters of the South China Sea on March 8, 2026 near Sanya, Hainan province, China.

China's persistent maritime presence east of Taiwan demonstrates a slowly growing capability to threaten or enact a trade quarantine against the island and raises the risk of at-sea incidents. 

Extended Chinese Drills East of Taiwan Demonstrate Trade Quarantine Risk

Cambodia

Thailand

A Thai soldier stands guard at a damaged border crossing point between Surin province's Chong Chom and O'Smach town on the Thai-Cambodian border, on March 12, 2026.

The Thai-Cambodian ceasefire will likely hold throughout 2026, but competing territorial claims, domestic politics and stalled diplomacy will prevent broader normalization.

Thailand and Cambodia Maintain an Uneasy Ceasefire

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Sudan

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (C) on Oct. 26, 2023, looks on as members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force parade on Ethiopian Defense Force Day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The latest confrontation between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front could signal more frequent clashes between the two sides that risk merging northern Ethiopia's conflicts with Sudan's civil war and could trigger a severe military escalation.

The latest confrontation between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front could signal more frequent clashes between the two sides that risk merging northern Ethiopia's conflicts with Sudan's civil war and could trigger a severe military escalation.

Clashes Between the TPLF and Ethiopian Military Threaten Spiraling Violence in Tigray

Bangladesh

Garment workers sew clothes at a textile factory in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Dec. 29, 2024. 

The government's efforts to secure U.S. tariff exemptions and external financial aid will have only a modest impact without addressing the ready-made garment sector's energy shortages and other structural challenges.

The Outlook for Bangladesh's Garment Sector Under U.S. Tariffs

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

Middle East and North Africa

Trace the hidden chain reaction from a closed Strait of Hormuz to a local bakery line, and discover how a Middle East energy shock can quietly turn into a global food crisis.

The Decision Advantage: The Foreseen Effects of the Strait of Hormuz Closure

Latest

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during the Workers' Party national convention in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Aug. 2, 2026.

Regardless of who wins the presidency in October, Congress's growing control over budget allocation will likely increase institutional friction, fragment procurement processes and hinder pro-business policymaking.

Brazil's Presidential Race Reflects a Deeper Shift in Political Dynamics

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference in Washington, D.C., on July 29, 2026. 

Changes to the central bank's inflation, balance sheet and communication strategies could increase financial market volatility, though the Fed's commitment to price stability will remain intact.

Previewing Potential U.S. Fed Policy Changes Under Warsh 

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

People in Sanaa, Yemen, stand under a large screen broadcasting Houthi-run coastguard forces patrolling in the Red Sea on March 13, 2026.

If economic concessions and limited military action fail to halt the Houthis' Red Sea blockade, the Saudis may pursue ground operations in Yemen, risking Iranian strikes and a renewed military quagmire.

Escalating Houthi Attacks Force Saudi Arabia To Shift Its Strategy

A Spanish soldier escorts a group of migrants on their way back towards the Moroccan border, following their illegal crossing into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, on Aug. 1, 2026.

Spain and Morocco's heightened security measures will likely thwart online efforts to organize another mass migration attempt, though smaller border breaches remain possible.

The Risk of a Second Migration Surge Into Spain's Ceuta

Brunei Darussalam

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro (center) and other leaders leave after a group photo session on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 24, 2026.

The meetings in Manila produced talks but no immediate collective action on critical regional issues like the Iran war's energy shock, intensifying South China Sea tensions and the Myanmar civil war.

ASEAN Meetings Make Little Headway on Pressing Energy and Security Issues

Chile

Chilean lawmakers in Congress celebrate at the end of the voting session on the economic reform bill on July 21, 2026.

Chile is poised to soon enact one of its broadest economic reform packages in decades, which will likely boost investor confidence and regulatory certainty, but at the expense of rising fiscal pressures.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

Turkey

Demonstrators yell through a megaphone and hold a framed portrait of the ousted Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman, Ogur Ozel, during an opposition rally in Izmir, Turkey, on May 24, 2026. 

The split could reduce the opposition's competitiveness in the 2028 general elections and further embolden Erdogan to pursue another term via constitutional or electoral mechanisms.

Turkey's Main Opposition Party Splits, Casting Uncertainty Over Efforts to Oust Erdogan

Israel

Yemeni protesters take part in a demonstration held to send a message of defiance against the continued siege and any military escalation involving Saudi forces against Houthi-controlled northern Yemen on July 17. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Forced to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's increased reliance on alternative routes leaves its critical oil shipments vulnerable to Houthi attacks.


Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

U.S.-Iran Relations

Columns

On Security

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

India

India's central government introduced a bill in Parliament that would tighten its authority over the mining sector by curbing state-level taxes and other charges on mineral resources and bringing mineral-bearing land under federal regulation, The Economic Times reported on Aug. 10. 

India: Government To Limit States' Powers To Tax Minerals and Mining

United Kingdom

Chinese shipping company Sea Legend will launch the first regular container shipping service through the Arctic the week of Aug. 10, connecting China's port of Ningbo through the Northern Sea Route (north of Russia) to the United Kingdom's Felixstowe via weekly liner service during the summer months of low ice, roughly July or August through October, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 10. 

China: World's First Scheduled Arctic Container Service Commences

Colombia

Colombia's new government carried out at least seven security and military operations against guerrilla groups across the country during its first 48 hours in office, Semana reported on Aug. 10.

Colombia: New President Tilts Colombia Toward Military Operations and U.S. Cooperation

The U.S. Department of Defense announced a $400 million conditional loan to build the world's first primarily scandium mine in Australia, Nikkei Asia reported on Aug. 10. 

Australia, U.S., China: Washington Finances Scandium Mine as Canberra Tightens Investment Controls

Russia will steadily hand over its two military bases in Syria -- its only military bases in the Middle East -- to the interim Syrian government by November, with the bases turned into joint Russo-Syrian training facilities, Syria's foreign ministry announced on Aug. 9.


Syria, Russia: Russia Slowly Winds Down Military Bases in Syria

Palestinian Territories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the 15-point Israel-Hamas peace plan backed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Aug. 9, the highest-level comments by the Israeli government on the matter since the ceasefire was implemented at the end of 2025, BBC reported on Aug. 9.

Israel: Netanyahu Rejects U.S.-Backed Peace Plan for Gaza

Science & Technology

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

New U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO between fall 2026 and 2029 through actions ranging from cyberattacks and covert operations to a limited land incursion, The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 6.

Russia, NATO: U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO's Resolve

North Korea

South Korea

South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told reporters to discount Unification Minister Chung Dong-young's Aug. 5 proposal for four-party talks between South Korea, North Korea, China and the United States, Reuters reported on Aug. 7.

South Korea: Officials Disagree Over North Korea Policy

Pakistan

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 7.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey: Governments Sign Mutual Defense Pact

India is pressing China to resume sharing water-flow data, which Beijing has not provided since the bilateral data-sharing agreement expired in June 2023, as concerns grow over its construction of the world's largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo, which flows downstream through India and Bangladesh, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 7.

India, China: India Raises River Data Concerns With China Over Tibet Dam

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

The Risk of a Second Migration Surge Into Spain's Ceuta

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Government To Limit States' Powers To Tax Minerals and Mining

China: World's First Scheduled Arctic Container Service Commences

Colombia: New President Tilts Colombia Toward Military Operations and U.S. Cooperation

Australia, U.S., China: Washington Finances Scandium Mine as Canberra Tightens Investment Controls

Syria, Russia: Russia Slowly Winds Down Military Bases in Syria

Israel: Netanyahu Rejects U.S.-Backed Peace Plan for Gaza

Russia, NATO: U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO's Resolve

South Korea: Officials Disagree Over North Korea Policy

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey: Governments Sign Mutual Defense Pact

India, China: India Raises River Data Concerns With China Over Tibet Dam

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