Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 14, 2026

India

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate with the party flags in Kolkata, India, following state elections in West Bengal.

Politics

The ruling party's expanding control across state governments will likely gradually strengthen its position in Parliament and accelerate the implementation of citizenship and labor policies.

In India, the BJP's State Election Wins Set the Stage for National Reform

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers a speech on April 18, 2026.

Ramaphosa will likely attempt to delay his upcoming impeachment process to facilitate the rise of a reformist ANC successor, though he still may preemptively resign, which would likely result in the collapse of South Africa's coalition government.

South Africa's Top Court Shows Ramaphosa the End of the Road

Kenya

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

China

France

United Kingdom

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Trucks haul away ore from a pit in the Chinese-owned Tenke Fungurume Mine, one of the largest copper and cobalt mines in the world, in southeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo on June 17, 2023.

Economics

Greater access to Congo's mining sector will likely help the U.S. further secure its cobalt and copper supplies, but ongoing security concerns in the Central African country and China's dominance over global mineral processing will limit the extent of these gains.

Trump Goes Hunting For Congo's Minerals

Snapshots

United Arab Emirates

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Ukraine

Russia

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

People gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on May 6, 2026.

Israel's May 6 airstrike, which killed a top Hezbollah commander, will weaken the already tenuous April ceasefire and diminish prospects for U.S.-backed mediation, raising the risk of a return to a wider war.

Beirut Attack Further Dims Prospects for Lebanon-Israel Peace Talks

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 7, 2026

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

Algeria

Spain

Italy

A worker stands on the uploading dock of Cavaou LNG terminal in Fos-sur-Mer, France, on June 22, 2023, while the tanker boat "Lalla Fatma N'Soumer" arrives full of LNG ready to be delivered. 

Energy

Amid energy supply disruptions in the Middle East, Algeria's ability to capitalize on increased global prices and demand for energy exports will be constrained by limited spare capacity and bureaucratic obstacles.

Structural Constraints Will Limit Algeria's Ability To Capitalize on Tighter Energy Markets

Latest

Saudi Arabia

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Turkey

A digital illustration of the Turkish flag.

Continued high inflation, political uncertainty and bureaucratic hurdles will likely limit the overall effectiveness of the reforms, which come ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Turkey Pursues Tax Reforms Amid Economic Fallout From the Iran War

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

Environment, Science & Technology

The May 14-15 meetings will likely yield a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

Qatar

Part of the gas processing facilities of Europe's first helium production pilot plant in Saint-Parize-le-Chatel, France, on Sept. 11, 2024.

Qatar's halt of helium production due to the Iran war risks causing shortages that disrupt key manufacturing industries, particularly in Asia.

How the Iran War is Choking the World's Helium Flow

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Cuba

A general view of El Capitolio and the Havana skyline on December 16, 2014, in Havana, Cuba.

A recent unannounced U.S. diplomatic visit to Havana bodes well for a deal that reduces tensions, but Washington's ongoing demands for political and economic reforms will sustain the risk of a U.S. military and/or law enforcement operation.

U.S.-Cuba Talks Progress, but Threat of Military Action Still Looms

Egypt

The exterior facade of the new headquarters of Egypt's central bank is seen at the New Administrative Capital megaproject about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo, on Aug. 1, 2023. 

Egypt will try to avoid submitting to another IMF loan program, which would likely require unpopular austerity and privatization measures. But the escalating economic impact of the Iran war may eventually force its hand.

Iran War Fallout Could Force Egypt to Seek Another Unpopular IMF Bailout

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Eritrea

Ethiopia

The U.S. Directorate of Defense Trade Controls announced the lifting of blanket restrictions on the export of military equipment to Ethiopian security forces under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, Addis Standard reported on May 14.

Ethiopia: Trump Administration Lifts Arms Export Ban

Alberta Justice Shaina Leonard threw out a petition organized by the separatist movement Stay Free Alberta calling for a referendum on independence, citing the group's failure to consult with Indigenous First Nations groups and saying the referendum would infringe on Indigenous treaty rights, BBC reported on May 13.

Canada: Alberta Judge Rules Against Independence Referendum Petition

The Cuban government announced on May 13 that the country had run out of fuel reserves, El Pais reported the same day.

Cuba, U.S.: Protests Increase in Havana as Cuba Runs Out of Fuel

Russia carried out one of its heaviest aerial attacks against Ukraine since the war began in 2022, targeting Kyiv and multiple other regions with large waves of drones and missiles, Interfax-Ukraine reported on May 14.

Russia, Ukraine: Record Russian Air Assault Shows No End to War Is in Sight

Saudi Arabia is reportedly discussing a nonaggression pact between Middle Eastern countries and Iran to de-escalate regional tensions after the end of the Iran war, the Financial Times reported on May 14.

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Saudi Arabia Discussing Nonaggression Pact With Iran, Vance Suggests 'Progress'

Philippines

Sen. Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa "escaped" the Philippine Senate before dawn after taking shelter there under Senate protective custody while facing an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, Reuters reported on May 14. 

Philippines: 'Escape' of Senator Wanted by the ICC Deepens Political Crisis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, the first step toward ensuring that the government meets its Oct. 27 deadline to hold elections, The Times of Israel reported on May 13.

Israel: Elections Set for October as Knesset Moves To Dissolve

Mexico

CNN broke a story on May 12 reporting that CIA operations officers facilitated an assassination of a high-ranking Sinaloa cartel leader, Francisco Beltran "El Payin," in Mexico on March 28, citing unnamed sources familiar with the campaign.

U.S., Mexico: CIA Reportedly Facilitating Counter-Cartel Operations in Mexico

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must order Ukraine's armed forces to stop firing and leave the Donbas and other Russian-claimed regions before Moscow and Kyiv can enter peace talks, Kommersant reported on May 13.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Bets on More Donbas Gains Before Serious Talks

India increased import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%, adding a 10% basic customs tariff and a 5% agriculture infrastructure and development levy, Reuters reported on May 13.

India: New Delhi Raises Gold and Silver Import Tariffs

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ethiopia: Trump Administration Lifts Arms Export Ban

Canada: Alberta Judge Rules Against Independence Referendum Petition

Cuba, U.S.: Protests Increase in Havana as Cuba Runs Out of Fuel

Russia, Ukraine: Record Russian Air Assault Shows No End to War Is in Sight

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Saudi Arabia Discussing Nonaggression Pact With Iran, Vance Suggests 'Progress'

Philippines: 'Escape' of Senator Wanted by the ICC Deepens Political Crisis

Israel: Elections Set for October as Knesset Moves To Dissolve

U.S., Mexico: CIA Reportedly Facilitating Counter-Cartel Operations in Mexico

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Bets on More Donbas Gains Before Serious Talks

India: New Delhi Raises Gold and Silver Import Tariffs

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