Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 11, 2025

China

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

How could advancements in AI increase the threat of state-sponsored cyber activity?

Essential Geopolitics: The Role of AI in State-Sponsored Cyber Espionage Campaigns

Benin

Nigeria

France

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

Cambodia

Thailand

A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand. 

Renewed fighting along the border could surpass the July clashes in scale, and while U.S. pressure will likely compel both countries to return to the ceasefire, the risk of future flare-ups will remain high.

Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention

Snapshots

Venezuela

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The shift toward a low-intensity conflict in the Gaza Strip will likely enable Israel to keep pressuring Hamas to disarm without triggering significant backlash or a resumption of Houthi maritime attacks.

Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Europe

Ukraine

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

U.S.-China Relations

Somalia

Yemen

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Columns

On Geopolitics

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 4, 2025

Latest

Tunisia

Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024. 

Despite tensions with union leaders, Tunisia's controversial finance bill will introduce reforms that attract foreign investment and increase production in key sectors.

Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

Iran

Lebanon

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Middle East and North Africa

Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.

While the White House has initiated a review process to label the Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization, it is unlikely to result in a comprehensive ban on the group.

U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Russia

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Honduras

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

Global Trade

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Turkey

Indonesia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

U.S. President Donald Trump said via Truth Social that Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet had both agreed to "cease all shooting" effective the evening of Dec. 12 (which has already passed in-region) and revert to the earlier U.S.- and Malaysia-brokered peace accord, Reuters reported the same day. 

Thailand, Cambodia, U.S.: Trump Claims Ceasefire Reset, Bangkok Signals Conditions as Fighting Continues

Brazil

The U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act on Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his wife, Viviane Barci de Moraes, g1 reported on Dec. 12. 

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Lifts Magnitsky Sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice 

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire would require Ukraine's full withdrawal from the Donbas region, Kommersant reported on Dec. 12.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Signals Rigid Donbas Preconditions as Allies Revise Peace Plan

India streamlined business visas for Chinese professionals by dropping a layer of scrutiny and cutting approval times to under a month, Reuters reported on Dec. 12. 

India, China: India Eases Red Tape To Fast-Track Business Visas for Chinese Professionals

EU member states are set to formally approve on Dec. 12 a European Commission proposal to indefinitely immobilize around 210 billion euros (roughly $246 billion) in Russian central bank assets held in Europe, replacing the current six-month sanctions rollover that requires unanimity, Reuters reported the same day.

Europe, Russia, Ukraine: EU Moves To Freeze Russian Central Bank Assets Indefinitely

Thailand's House of Representatives was dissolved by royal decree on Dec. 12, triggering a general election within 45-60 days and placing Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakul's government into caretaker status, The Bangkok Post reported the same day.

Thailand: Prime Minister Dissolves Parliament, Triggering Early Elections

Nigeria's ruling All Peoples' Congress party, or APC, formally registered Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara as a party member, Daily Post reported on Dec. 12.

Nigeria: Rivers Governor Formally Registers as APC Member After Defecting From Opposition

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

The government of Cote d'Ivoire is pressing the United States to deploy intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) assets to the country to help counter the fuel blockade imposed on the Malian capital Bamako by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), Reuters reported Dec. 11, citing conversations with two Ivorian officials.

Cote D'Ivoire: Government Lobbies for U.S. Air Assets to Counter JNIM Blockade on Bamako

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Dec. 12 that it was implementing a licensing regime on exports of 300 steel products (various HS 72 & 73 codes), effective Jan. 1, 2026. 

China: Steel Export Licenses To Curb Domestic Risks, But Not Trade Disputes

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order late on Dec. 11 that seeks to curb state-level artificial intelligence laws as part of the administration's larger deregulation push for the sector, The Washington Post reported the same day. 

U.S.: Trump Signs Executive Order Aiming To Curb State AI Laws

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Thailand, Cambodia, U.S.: Trump Claims Ceasefire Reset, Bangkok Signals Conditions as Fighting Continues

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Lifts Magnitsky Sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Signals Rigid Donbas Preconditions as Allies Revise Peace Plan

India, China: India Eases Red Tape To Fast-Track Business Visas for Chinese Professionals

Europe, Russia, Ukraine: EU Moves To Freeze Russian Central Bank Assets Indefinitely

Thailand: Prime Minister Dissolves Parliament, Triggering Early Elections

Nigeria: Rivers Governor Formally Registers as APC Member After Defecting From Opposition

Cote D'Ivoire: Government Lobbies for U.S. Air Assets to Counter JNIM Blockade on Bamako

China: Steel Export Licenses To Curb Domestic Risks, But Not Trade Disputes

U.S.: Trump Signs Executive Order Aiming To Curb State AI Laws

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support