Assessments

Colombia

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker on April 28 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Discussions, Brussels To Unveil Tech Sovereignty Package

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

A fireball and smoke erupt from a building following an Israeli strike in Tyre, southern Lebanon, on May 28.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The recent expansion of Israeli operations in southern Lebanon demonstrates an effort to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities prior to any finalized de-escalation agreements between the United States and Iran.


The Strategic Implications of Israel's Expanded Lebanon Campaign

Supporters of Colombian presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda wave flags ahead of his closing campaign rally in Barranquilla, Colombia, on May 24, 2026.

Economics

Energy

A left-wing victory would portend increased social spending and policy gridlock, a far-right win would portend austerity and decree-based governance, and a center-right win would foster market-friendly policies and stability.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Spain

A National Police van is parked in front of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party headquarters during the Civil Guard's police search on May 27, 2026, in Madrid, Spain. 

Widening inquiries into public procurement and influence peddling will continue to weaken the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Scandals Linked to Spanish PM Sanchez Point to Continued Political Paralysis 

Ukraine

Russia

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 28, 2026

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivers remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

Prime Minister Abiy will likely be reelected without sustained unrest, but escalating tensions in Tigray could still fuel a worsening security crisis in the Amhara and/or Oromia regions in a less-likely, higher-impact scenario.

Previewing Ethiopia's General Elections

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

The USS Rafael Peralta implements a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on April 26, 2026, in the Arabian Sea.

Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement, unresolved disputes and continued hostilities make prolonged, unstable containment more likely than a comprehensive, long-lasting peace agreement.

U.S.-Iran Talks More Likely To Contain the War Than Resolve It

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Global Trade

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile are poised to benefit from the expected rise in lithium demand in the coming years, but they are unlikely to see a substantial surge in wealth without a more monumental market change.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 2

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile have had varying degrees of success in developing their lithium production capacity, with Chile achieving the greatest success of the three, and Bolivia lagging behind.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 1

Latest

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Sudan

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

Turkey

Armenia

A window view from Turkey's Eastern Express train. 

Improved relations could unlock strategic and economic benefits for both countries, especially if their border is reopened, though Russia's entrenched influence in Armenia remains a key constraint.

Russian Coercion Will Constrain Budding Turkey-Armenia Rapprochement

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Philippines

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

Japan

The Japanese flag flies outside the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in central Tokyo on March 19, 2024. 

Monetary tightening will increase government interest payments and fiscal deficits, but the impact on debt dynamics and defense spending will remain manageable, provided the central bank avoids large-scale government bond sales.

How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact Japan's Debt Outlook?

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Russia launched a barrage of hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles at Ukraine overnight, killing at least 18 people and injuring dozens in strikes on Kyiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava and Kharkiv, The Guardian reported on June 2.

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Missile Strikes Test Ukraine's Civilian Resilience

Cyber

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a new executive order aiming to promote artificial intelligence innovation while also introducing elevated cybersecurity safeguards, Reuters reported on June 2.

U.S.: President Trump Signs New AI Executive Order

India

India will hold talks with a U.S. delegation in New Delhi the week of June 1, while Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal will separately meet with his British counterpart, Peter Kyle, Bloomberg reported on June 2.

India: New Delhi To Discuss Tariff Exemptions in Separate Trade Talks With U.S. and U.K.

Vietnam

The Philippine Senate failed to open its June 1 session after recent events reduced the 13-member majority bloc to 11 senators, prompting the bloc -- which also includes the Senate president -- to skip the session rather than risk losing control of the floor, Bloomberg reported the next day. 

Philippines: Senate Dysfunction Leads to Paralysis

The European Parliament's international trade committee approved by 31 votes to six, with three abstentions, a compromise deal reached in interinstitutional negotiations with EU member states and the European Commission on legislation to implement the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement, according to a June 2 European Parliament press release.

EU, U.S.: European Parliament's Trade Committee Approves U.S. Trade Deal Compromise Ahead of Plenary Vote

The United States is in highly confidential talks with NATO allies about expanding the number of European countries that host U.S. nuclear weapons from the current six, the Financial Times reported on June 2, citing sources briefed on the discussions.

NATO: U.S. in Talks With NATO Allies To Expand European Nuclear Hosting

South Africa

The impeachment committee tasked with leading an inquiry into South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's Phala Phala scandal held its first meeting on June 1, during which it elected the chief whip of the Rise Mzansi party, Makashule Gana, as the committee's chairperson, Eyewitness News reported on the same day.

South Africa: Impeachment Committee for Ramaphosa Holds First Meeting, Elects Chairperson

Chairperson of the National Election Board of Ethiopia Melatwork Hailu said 143 polling stations did not open during the country's June 1 general election due to security concerns, adding that "security problems" had also interrupted the vote at an undisclosed number of polling stations in "certain areas" of the Amhara and Oromia regions, Addis Standard reported on June 1.

Ethiopia: Government Praises Peaceful General Election Despite Security-Driven Interruptions To Polling

Senegal

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye on June 1 appointed a government led by newly designated Prime Minister Ahmadou Al Aminou Lo that excludes formal representation from the ruling Patriots of Senegal party, or PASTEF, Jeune Afrique reported on June 2.

Senegal: President Appoints Government Without Participation of Ruling Party

Brazil

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative concluded its Section 301 investigation on Brazil on June 1 and proposed a 25% tariff on many Brazilian goods from July as punishment for "unreasonable" trade practices, g1 reported on June 2.

U.S., Brazil: USTR Proposes 25% Tariffs on Brazil Under Section 301 Investigation

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Missile Strikes Test Ukraine's Civilian Resilience

U.S.: President Trump Signs New AI Executive Order

India: New Delhi To Discuss Tariff Exemptions in Separate Trade Talks With U.S. and U.K.

Philippines: Senate Dysfunction Leads to Paralysis

EU, U.S.: European Parliament's Trade Committee Approves U.S. Trade Deal Compromise Ahead of Plenary Vote

NATO: U.S. in Talks With NATO Allies To Expand European Nuclear Hosting

South Africa: Impeachment Committee for Ramaphosa Holds First Meeting, Elects Chairperson

Ethiopia: Government Praises Peaceful General Election Despite Security-Driven Interruptions To Polling

Senegal: President Appoints Government Without Participation of Ruling Party

U.S., Brazil: USTR Proposes 25% Tariffs on Brazil Under Section 301 Investigation

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