Assessments

United States

Military & Security

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 29, 2026

Snapshots

China

Taiwan

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

Politics

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

India

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) holds up his signature on the founding charter among world leaders during a ceremony for the Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 22, 2026.

The U.S.-led endeavor's immediate priority will be expanding aid in Gaza, but internal divisions, international skepticism and Israeli interference will likely undermine its effectiveness, especially if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapses.

What To Make of Trump's 'Board of Peace'

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

The Federal Reserve's headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C.

Economics

Trump will soon be able to nominate a new Fed chair and governor. But unless the Supreme Court vastly increases the president's power to dismiss Fed governors, the bank will retain its independence, limiting the risk of market instability.

U.S. Fed Independence: Assessing Threats From Trump Nominations, Court Rulings

Iran

A photo of Israeli banknotes.

While Israel's economy has proven remarkably resilient during the years-long Gaza war with Hamas, persistent security risks and an upcoming election will present new challenges.

How Israel's Economy Will Weather Persistent Political and Security Concerns in 2026

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a hotel in New York City on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting on Sept. 22, 2025. 

Global Trade

A trade deal could gradually reduce barriers in the tech, industrial and energy sectors, but progress will likely remain constrained by U.S. tariff uncertainty and India's reluctance to make concessions in sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Where Things Stand in U.S.-India Trade Talks

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 22, 2026

Ukraine

Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The reshuffle seeks to strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace deal amid weakening Western support and Russia's continued battlefield advances.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Sub-Saharan Africa

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

Sudan

Togo

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

Latest

Australia

The Australian flag flies at half mast over Parliament House on Jan. 22, 2026, in Melbourne, Australia, to honor the victims of the Bondi shootings.

Passed in response to the Bondi Beach attack, the legislation will likely fuel legal and federal-state friction, deepen opposition fragmentation and entrench security policy as a persistent fault line in Australian politics.

The Political Impact of Australia's Gun Reform and Anti-Hate Bills

Bangladesh

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) supporters gather for a rally in Sylhet, Bangladesh, ahead of the upcoming national election on Jan. 22, 2026. 

The Feb. 12 ballot could yield a government led by the conservative BNP, a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat party, or a fragile BNP-Jamaat coalition -- each with distinct implications for Bangladesh's economic, political and foreign policy landscape.

Bangladesh's General Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Costa Rica

The candidates running in Costa Rica's 2026 presidential election participate in a debate at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal in San Jose, Costa Rica, on Jan. 11, 2026. 

Although the president cannot run for reelection, his hand-picked successor will likely win the vote, keeping the right wing at the helm.

Costa Rica's Upcoming Election Will Likely Yield Policy Continuity

Romania

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

Syria

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Venezuela

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

Saudi and Israeli officials are arriving in Washington the week of Jan. 26 to discuss the potential impacts of and possible de-escalation plans for U.S. President Donald Trump's widely anticipated campaign against Iran, Axios reported on Jan. 29.

U.S., Iran: Coordination Increases as Trump Signals Desire To Reignite Protests in Iran

Germany

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Germany's Federal Administrative Court ruled that the government must revise its 2023 climate protection program after finding it insufficient to meet legally binding 2030 sectoral emissions targets, upholding a 2024 lower-court decision brought by Environmental Action Germany, or DUH, Handelsblatt reported on Jan. 29.

Germany: Top Court Upholds Orders for Federal Government To Strengthen Climate Measures

Syrian Interior Minister Anas Hasan Khattab issued a Jan. 28 decree granting citizenship to all Syrian Kurds and those listed as stateless, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 29.

Syria: Interim Government Grants Citizenship to Kurds

The Chinese government granted Chinese tech giants ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent approvals to purchase a combined total of more than 400,000 Nvidia H200 chips, according to Reuters sources on Jan. 28.

China, U.S.: Beijing Conditionally Allows Some Nvidia H200 Chip Imports

China's ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian warned that Beijing would have an "obligation to take measures" to protect the interests of Chinese companies if Canberra pushes ahead with a forced sale or otherwise coercive measures to reclaim the Port of Darwin, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported Jan. 28.

China, Australia: Beijing Warns of Retaliation Amid Port of Darwin Dispute

Netherlands

Energy

The leaders of the Netherlands' centrist-liberal Democrats 66 and the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal and People's Party for Freedom and Democracy agreed to form a minority coalition government after months of negotiations, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

Netherlands: Dutch Center-Right Parties Agree To Form Minority Coalition Government

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said that if he could run for reelection, he would win in the first round, and he resumed calls to rewrite the country's constitution, Infobae reported on Jan. 27. 

Colombia: Petro Floats Constitutional Change To Run for Reelection Amid Popularity Boost

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Kenya

Madagascar

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Turkey

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Saif al-Nasr Haroun, the infrastructure minister with Sudan's Sudanese Armed Forces-backed government, said the SAF would grant priority to Saudi companies in reconstruction projects to repair infrastructure damaged by the civil war, with a focus on port and rail initiatives, Sudan Tribune reported on Jan. 27.

Sudan: SAF-Backed Government Vows To Prioritize Saudi Companies in Reconstruction Projects

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham said he would introduce the Save the Kurds Act, which would impose sanctions on those threatening Syria's Kurdish population, and criticized the Syrian government and Turkey for their lightning offensive against the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, The National reported on Jan. 27.

U.S., MENA: Sen. Graham Warns Against Anti-Kurdish Actions in Syria, Saudi-UAE Rivalry in Yemen

Iraq

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to cut aid to Iraq if former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki becomes prime minister again in a Truth Social post days after the Shiite Coordination Framework, or SCF, an umbrella organization of pro-Iranian Shiite political parties, nominated him, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

Iraq, U.S.: Trump Threatens To Cut Aid to Iraq if Al-Maliki Becomes Prime Minister

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: Coordination Increases as Trump Signals Desire To Reignite Protests in Iran

Germany: Top Court Upholds Orders for Federal Government To Strengthen Climate Measures

Syria: Interim Government Grants Citizenship to Kurds

China, U.S.: Beijing Conditionally Allows Some Nvidia H200 Chip Imports

China, Australia: Beijing Warns of Retaliation Amid Port of Darwin Dispute

Netherlands: Dutch Center-Right Parties Agree To Form Minority Coalition Government

Colombia: Petro Floats Constitutional Change To Run for Reelection Amid Popularity Boost

Sudan: SAF-Backed Government Vows To Prioritize Saudi Companies in Reconstruction Projects

U.S., MENA: Sen. Graham Warns Against Anti-Kurdish Actions in Syria, Saudi-UAE Rivalry in Yemen

Iraq, U.S.: Trump Threatens To Cut Aid to Iraq if Al-Maliki Becomes Prime Minister

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