Snapshots

United States

China

Indonesia

Japan

Philippines

Taiwan

Crew members on a Chinese navy ship wave as they prepare to dock at Indonesia's Tanjung Perak Port on Aug. 2, 2026. 

Military & Security

Politics

China's recent naval drill with Indonesia appears aimed at asserting de facto jurisdiction around Taiwan, raising the risk of at-sea clashes and increased tensions with the U.S., Japan and the Philippines.

China's Latest Drills Near Taiwan Aim To Assert De Facto Jurisdiction

U.S.-China Relations

Assessments

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 13, 2026

Colombia

Rescuers and volunteers search for survivors under a collapsed building in Pereira, Colombia, on Aug. 11, 2026, following a magnitude 7.4 earthquake.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

The magnitude 7.4 earthquake will test President Abelardo de la Espriella's nascent administration, while simultaneously exacerbating fiscal and security challenges and creating significant operational and compliance risks for businesses.

Colombia's New Government Faces an Early Test After Major Earthquake

Syria

A Russian aircraft takes off from an airport in northeastern Syria's Hasakah province on Jan. 27, 2026. 

Syria's cooperation with the U.S. to remove nuclear materials and reduce Russian military influence will support its reconstruction efforts, but security challenges will continue to hinder major infrastructure projects.

Syria's Pro-U.S. Policy Shift May Secure Sanctions Relief, but Challenges Persist

Europe

Lithuania

Latvia

Poland

Belarus

Russia

A Latvian border guard patrols along the fence at the Belarusian border near Krivanda, eastern Latvia, on Aug. 8, 2023.

Migration pressure orchestrated by Belarus is shifting toward Latvia and driving the adoption of sophisticated tunnel-smuggling tactics that will test EU resilience.

Belarus's Hybrid Migration Tactics Shift Pressure to Latvia

Nigeria

Zambia

Iran

Morocco

Oman

Spain

Migrants wait to receive water on a beach in the North African Spanish enclave of Ceuta on Aug. 2, 2026.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Extreme Weather in China and Europe, More Migrant Crossings Into Spain

Media

Australia

Fiji

Solomon Islands

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Podcasts

Who are the main players, and what are the primary frameworks holding it all together?

The Decision Advantage: The Security Architecture of the Pacific Islands

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Ukraine

The parliament building is seen through a European flag during a demonstration against a judicial reform pushed by lawmakers of the ruling Law and Justice party on Jan. 23, 2020, in Warsaw, Poland. 

Social Issues

Poland's right-wing opposition parties remain well-positioned to win a majority in the 2027 general election, though growing fragmentation among these parties will hinder postelection coalition talks, potentially leading to a government that includes far-right elements.

How Poland's Right-Wing Split Alters the 2027 Election Landscape

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 6, 2026

Greenland

Denmark

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Energy

Greenland's large deposits of critical minerals make the island one of the few potential alternatives to Chinese supply chains, but material constraints and diplomatic disputes will obstruct large-scale production.

The West's Quest To Exploit Greenland's Critical Minerals

A Chinese coast guard vessel is anchored in the waters of the South China Sea on March 8, 2026 near Sanya, Hainan province, China.

China's persistent maritime presence east of Taiwan demonstrates a slowly growing capability to threaten or enact a trade quarantine against the island and raises the risk of at-sea incidents. 

Extended Chinese Drills East of Taiwan Demonstrate Trade Quarantine Risk

Latest

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during the Workers' Party national convention in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Aug. 2, 2026.

Regardless of who wins the presidency in October, Congress's growing control over budget allocation will likely increase institutional friction, fragment procurement processes and hinder pro-business policymaking.

Brazil's Presidential Race Reflects a Deeper Shift in Political Dynamics

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference in Washington, D.C., on July 29, 2026. 

Changes to the central bank's inflation, balance sheet and communication strategies could increase financial market volatility, though the Fed's commitment to price stability will remain intact.

Previewing Potential U.S. Fed Policy Changes Under Warsh 

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

People in Sanaa, Yemen, stand under a large screen broadcasting Houthi-run coastguard forces patrolling in the Red Sea on March 13, 2026.

If economic concessions and limited military action fail to halt the Houthis' Red Sea blockade, the Saudis may pursue ground operations in Yemen, risking Iranian strikes and a renewed military quagmire.

Escalating Houthi Attacks Force Saudi Arabia To Shift Its Strategy

A Spanish soldier escorts a group of migrants on their way back towards the Moroccan border, following their illegal crossing into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, on Aug. 1, 2026.

Spain and Morocco's heightened security measures will likely thwart online efforts to organize another mass migration attempt, though smaller border breaches remain possible.

The Risk of a Second Migration Surge Into Spain's Ceuta

Cambodia

Thailand

A Thai soldier stands guard at a damaged border crossing point between Surin province's Chong Chom and O'Smach town on the Thai-Cambodian border, on March 12, 2026.

The Thai-Cambodian ceasefire will likely hold throughout 2026, but competing territorial claims, domestic politics and stalled diplomacy will prevent broader normalization.

Thailand and Cambodia Maintain an Uneasy Ceasefire

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

Brunei Darussalam

Timor-Leste

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro (center) and other leaders leave after a group photo session on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 24, 2026.

The meetings in Manila produced talks but no immediate collective action on critical regional issues like the Iran war's energy shock, intensifying South China Sea tensions and the Myanmar civil war.

ASEAN Meetings Make Little Headway on Pressing Energy and Security Issues

Chile

Chilean lawmakers in Congress celebrate at the end of the voting session on the economic reform bill on July 21, 2026.

Chile is poised to soon enact one of its broadest economic reform packages in decades, which will likely boost investor confidence and regulatory certainty, but at the expense of rising fiscal pressures.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

Columns

On Security

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

U.S.-Iran Relations

Israel

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

North Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 13 visited Etorofu/Iturup Island, one of the four Northern Territories claimed by Japan in the Kuril Islands, which Russia has occupied since just after World War II, Reuters reported.

Japan, Russia: Putin Visits Disputed Kurils, Highlights Worsening Ties

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

India

India and the five-member Southern African Customs Union signed terms of reference to begin negotiations on a preferential trade agreement, Reuters reported on Aug. 12.

India: New Delhi Revives Trade Pact Talks With Southern African Customs Union

President of the U.S.-China Business Council Sean Stein told the South China Morning Post in an interview published on Aug. 13 that he had seen little evidence there would be a "sizable deliverable" pertaining to the U.S.-China Board of Investment at a planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on Sept. 24.

U.S., China: Board of Investment Stagnating Ahead of Unambitious Summit

Venezuela

Venezuela's interim government and the 2015 National Assembly delegation opposition group led by Dinorah Figuera issued a joint statement agreeing to reform the judiciary and seek access to frozen funds, El Pais reported on Aug. 12.

Venezuela: Government and Opposition Agree to Limited Changes to the Judiciary

United Kingdom

U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby said AUKUS was moving "full steam ahead" but declined to guarantee the transfer of three secondhand Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia by 2032 per the agreed timeline, the Australian Financial Review reported on Aug. 13.

Australia, U.S.: Submarine Production Shortfall Will Continue To Threaten AUKUS Timeline

South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers, or NUM, said it is preparing legal action against President Cyril Ramaphosa's plans to transfer South Africa's power transmission assets from state-owned utilities company Eskom to a new and independent Transmission System Operator, or TSO, adding that it would consider calling for strikes if the government pursued these plans, Engineering News reported on Aug. 12.

South Africa: NUM Vows Action Against Transfer of Eskom's Power Transmission Assets 

Palestinian Territories

Israel deployed extra forces to the town of Qusra outside of Nablus in the West Bank in an attempt to protect a Palestinian-American-owned home from Israeli settlers who were besieging it after pressure from the United States, NPR reported on Aug. 13. 

Palestinian Territories, Israel: U.S. Intervenes in Settler Attack, Hamas To Run in PLC Elections

Cyber

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a national security memo on Aug. 12 directing federal law enforcement agencies to create a program enabling them to carry out offensive cyber operations targeting transnational organized crime syndicates, with assistance from private sector companies.

U.S.: Trump Signs Directive Opening Door to Private Sector Cyber Help in Targeting Transnational Crime

Science & Technology

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had conveyed new proposals for ending the Russia-Ukraine war to the United States, adding that Russia planned to mobilize several hundred thousand additional troops after its September parliamentary election, Reuters reported on Aug. 11.

Ukraine, Russia: Any Renewed U.S. Talks Are Unlikely To Produce a Near-Term Ceasefire 

Eritrea

Ethiopia

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and the allied Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, or SPLM-N, took large parts of the town of Geissan in the southeastern Blue Nile state, with clashes reportedly still ongoing, Sudan Tribune reported on Aug. 11.

Sudan: RSF Launches Offensive on New Axis in Blue Nile State, SAF Says Attack Launched From Ethiopia

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

The Risk of a Second Migration Surge Into Spain's Ceuta

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan, Russia: Putin Visits Disputed Kurils, Highlights Worsening Ties

India: New Delhi Revives Trade Pact Talks With Southern African Customs Union

U.S., China: Board of Investment Stagnating Ahead of Unambitious Summit

Venezuela: Government and Opposition Agree to Limited Changes to the Judiciary

Australia, U.S.: Submarine Production Shortfall Will Continue To Threaten AUKUS Timeline

South Africa: NUM Vows Action Against Transfer of Eskom's Power Transmission Assets

Palestinian Territories, Israel: U.S. Intervenes in Settler Attack, Hamas To Run in PLC Elections

U.S.: Trump Signs Directive Opening Door to Private Sector Cyber Help in Targeting Transnational Crime

Ukraine, Russia: Any Renewed U.S. Talks Are Unlikely To Produce a Near-Term Ceasefire

Sudan: RSF Launches Offensive on New Axis in Blue Nile State, SAF Says Attack Launched From Ethiopia

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