Snapshots

Spain

A National Police van is parked in front of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party headquarters during the Civil Guard's police search on May 27, 2026, in Madrid, Spain. 

Politics

Widening inquiries into public procurement and influence peddling will continue to weaken the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Scandals Linked to Spanish PM Sanchez Point to Continued Political Paralysis 

Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 28, 2026

Iran

The USS Rafael Peralta implements a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on April 26, 2026, in the Arabian Sea.

Military & Security

Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement, unresolved disputes and continued hostilities make prolonged, unstable containment more likely than a comprehensive, long-lasting peace agreement.

U.S.-Iran Talks More Likely To Contain the War Than Resolve It

U.S.-Iran Relations

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile are poised to benefit from the expected rise in lithium demand in the coming years, but they are unlikely to see a substantial surge in wealth without a more monumental market change.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 2

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile have had varying degrees of success in developing their lithium production capacity, with Chile achieving the greatest success of the three, and Bolivia lagging behind.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 1

Israel

Lebanon

Japan

Philippines

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Russia

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Cuba

Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche (center) speaks during a news conference announcing the indictment of former Cuban president Raul Castro, at the Freedom Tower in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2026.

Energy

Recent U.S. escalations against Cuba are creating a pretext for kinetic action, most likely a targeted operation to capture key officials, though an airstrike campaign and/or a ground deployment also remain possible.

Assessing the Potential for U.S. Military Action in Cuba

Greenland

Denmark

U.S. special envoy to Greenland, Republican Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry (center right), and Greenlandic mason and Trump supporter Jorgen Boassen (center left) are pictured in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 20, 2026, on the sidelines of the Future Greenland business fair. 

Ongoing talks with Greenland and Denmark will likely yield a deal that meets most U.S. objectives without requiring formal annexation, though a broader transatlantic crisis remains possible if negotiations collapse.

Can the U.S. Reach a Compromise on Greenland That Averts a Transatlantic Crisis?

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 21, 2026

The Japanese flag flies outside the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in central Tokyo on March 19, 2024. 

Monetary tightening will increase government interest payments and fiscal deficits, but the impact on debt dynamics and defense spending will remain manageable, provided the central bank avoids large-scale government bond sales.

How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact Japan's Debt Outlook?

Palestinian Territories

Germany

United Kingdom

Slovenia

Ireland

Hungary

The EU and Israeli flags in March 2024 in central Berlin's Rotes Rathaus. Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Targeted EU Sanctions on Israeli Settlers Unlikely To Broaden Into Wider Restrictions 

Latest

Colombia

Supporters of Colombian presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda wave flags ahead of his closing campaign rally in Barranquilla, Colombia, on May 24, 2026.

A left-wing victory would portend increased social spending and policy gridlock, a far-right win would portend austerity and decree-based governance, and a center-right win would foster market-friendly policies and stability.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Ukraine

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivers remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

Prime Minister Abiy will likely be reelected without sustained unrest, but escalating tensions in Tigray could still fuel a worsening security crisis in the Amhara and/or Oromia regions in a less-likely, higher-impact scenario.

Previewing Ethiopia's General Elections

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

United Arab Emirates

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Sweden

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will buy 150 Swedish Gripen fighter jets using part of a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) credit line, during his meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Uppsala, Sweden, Interfax-Ukraine reported on May 28.

Ukraine, Sweden: Gripen Deal Deepens Kyiv's Nordic-Baltic Defense Ties

Russian President Vladimir Putin's state visit to Astana on May 27-28 produced a joint declaration on the "seven foundations" of friendship and good-neighborliness between Kazakhstan and Russia and a package of bilateral agreements, including accords on a $16.5 billion nuclear power plant and Russian export-credit financing for 85% of the project, Qazinform reported on May 28.

Kazakhstan, Russia: Putin Visit Highlights Kazakh Export Risks Despite Bilateral Pageantry

Guatemala

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo agreed to joint military actions with the United States against drug trafficking groups within Guatemalan territory during a meeting between Arevalo and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on May 19, The New York Times reported on May 28.

U.S., Guatemala: Arevalo Reportedly Agreed to Joint Military Operations Against Criminal Groups

An Indian delegation visited Beijing on May 27 for the 35th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs, where, according to Indian official statements, both sides discussed border delimitation and trans-border river issues, Bloomberg reported on May 28. 

India, China: Governments Hold Talks on Border Cooperation

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso's Ministry of Territorial Administration suspended the country's largest student union, the General Union of Students of Burkina, for three months on a renewable basis over its "glorification/apology of terrorism," RFI reported on May 28.

Burkina Faso: Junta Suspends Largest Student Union Over Alleged Terrorism Apology 

North Korea

Singapore

South Korea

Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told Singaporean media following his May 26 visit to North Korea that Pyongyang was not ready to open dialogue with the United States and South Korea, but was focused on self-reliance and developing its military.

North Korea, Singapore: Rare Visit Highlights Pyongyang's Diplomacy

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's governing coalition submitted a revised electoral reform bill to Parliament, introducing a proportional system with a majority bonus of 70 seats in the lower house and 35 in the Senate for the list or coalition finishing first in both chambers with over 42% of the vote, ANSA reported May 27.

Italy: Meloni's Coalition Submits Electoral Reform Bill Ahead of 2027 Vote

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, although U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian leadership must still approve the draft, Axios reported on May 28, citing U.S. officials.

U.S., Iran: Negotiators Reportedly Reach Draft MoU Amid Clashes

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

During a Cabinet meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss the Iran conflict, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States preferred a diplomatic resolution and that there had been some progress in negotiations, AP reported on May 27.

U.S., Iran: Trump Meets With Cabinet To Discuss Iran War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent U.S. President Donald Trump a letter warning that Ukraine's shortage of air defense systems is worsening, with the most acute need being Patriot PAC-3 interceptors and other systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, the Kyiv Independent reported on May 27.

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Warns Trump of Critical Patriot Shortages

Media

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Sweden: Gripen Deal Deepens Kyiv's Nordic-Baltic Defense Ties

Kazakhstan, Russia: Putin Visit Highlights Kazakh Export Risks Despite Bilateral Pageantry

U.S., Guatemala: Arevalo Reportedly Agreed to Joint Military Operations Against Criminal Groups

India, China: Governments Hold Talks on Border Cooperation

Burkina Faso: Junta Suspends Largest Student Union Over Alleged Terrorism Apology

North Korea, Singapore: Rare Visit Highlights Pyongyang's Diplomacy

Italy: Meloni's Coalition Submits Electoral Reform Bill Ahead of 2027 Vote

U.S., Iran: Negotiators Reportedly Reach Draft MoU Amid Clashes

U.S., Iran: Trump Meets With Cabinet To Discuss Iran War

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Warns Trump of Critical Patriot Shortages

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