Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 26, 2025

Snapshots

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Angola

South Africa

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

Banners bearing portraits of leaders of the G20 on Nov. 20 in Johannesburg. The South African government has focused the G20 summit's agenda on issues key to African countries.

Economics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A High-Stakes British Budget, South Africa Hosts the G20

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Honduras

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

Syria

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa delivers a speech in Damascus on July 3, 2025, during the unveiling of the "New Visual Identity of the Syrian Arab Republic." 

The transitional government's decision will boost reconstruction and counter-terrorism efforts, but it will also risk alienating internal hard-liners and could eventually fuel an Islamic State resurgence if Syria's economic recovery stalls.

The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State

The Pentagon viewed from above.

A strategic shift to prioritize commercially available technology over bespoke solutions aims to deliver capabilities faster, though it faces constraints and introduces risks to quality and cost.

New U.S. Defense Acquisition Reforms Offer Opportunities for Improvements, but Longstanding Constraints Remain

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 20, 2025

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

Italy

Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on March 18 in the Italian Senate in Rome. Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Modest Growth and Spending Pressures Will Limit Italy's Debt Reduction Efforts

Media

Indonesia

Podcasts

What is the outlook for Indonesia-Israel normalization, and what would that process look like?

Essential Geopolitics: Indonesia's Interest in Israel-Gaza

Latest

China

Global Trade

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

U.S.-China Relations

India

Employees work at a garment factory in Tiruppur, in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Sept. 23, 2025.

While the reforms will eventually create a more competitive, transparent and predictable labor market, the potential for uneven state-level adoption and protests will create challenges for companies in the near term. 

India's Labor Code Reforms: Opportunities and Implementation Challenges

Europe

Smoke rises in the background as a Ukrainian flag flutters in the wind following a mass overnight Russian drone and missile attacks, in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Nov. 19, 2025. 

European efforts to adjust core elements of Trump's plan won't shield Ukraine from his latest threat to withdraw support, and Europe's limited leverage and internal constraints mean it is unlikely to sustain Kyiv's defense alone if talks with the White House fail.

What To Make of Europe's Counterproposal to the U.S. Ukraine Peace Plan

Iran

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Columns

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Turkey

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

British Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented her Autumn Budget to Parliament on Nov. 26, outlining tax rises totaling 26.1 billion pounds (about $30.3 billion) a year by 2029-30, The Guardian reported.

U.K.: Chancellor Reeves Unveils Tax Hikes in Budget to Restore Stability Amid Weak Growth 

Guinea Bissau

A group of senior military officers in Guinea-Bissau, calling themselves "High Military Command for the Restoration of Order," declared they had taken "total control" of the country until further notice following the disputed Nov. 23 presidential election, which both President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and his main challenger, Fernando Dias, claimed to have won, RFI reported Nov. 27.

Guinea-Bissau: Army Officers Say They Have Taken Control After President's Arrest

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated it was "premature" to conclude the conflict in Ukraine was nearing an end, TASS reported Nov. 26.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Dismisses Prospects of Near-Term Peace

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning to open two new alcohol stores for non-Muslims in 2026, including one in Dhahran to serve foreign staff at an Aramco oil facility and one in the port city of Jeddah to serve foreign diplomats, Reuters reported Nov. 24, citing anonymous sources. 

Saudi Arabia: Alcohol Stores for Non-Muslims To Open in Dhahran, Jeddah

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai published an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Nov. 26 in which he proposed a $40-billion supplemental defense budget to support U.S. arms procurement and domestic arms production over eight years from 2026-2033, effectively doubling the military's procurement budget, which was $4.28 billion in 2025.

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Central African Republic

Rwanda

Central African Republic (CAR) President Faustin Touadera met with Rwandan President Paul Kagame in Kigali on Nov. 23, where they discussed security matters related to CAR's Dec. 28 presidential election and broader areas of bilateral collaboration, including infrastructure development, health and mining sectors, Jeune Afrique reported Nov. 26.

Central African Republic, Rwanda: Leaders Discuss Security Ahead of CAR's Presidential Election 

Cyprus

Energy

Lebanon and Cyprus agreed to a final maritime demarcation agreement, nearly two decades after an initial deal determined maritime zones in 2007, Reuters reported Nov. 26.

Lebanon, Cyprus: Maritime Demarcation Agreement Reached

Uganda

The National Unity Platform, the party of opposition presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi (aka Bobi Wine), announced that security forces have detained more than 300 of its supporters and officials since campaigning for the January 2026 election began in October, Reuters reported Nov. 25.

Uganda: Opposition Reports More Than 300 Supporters Detained Ahead of Election

Science & Technology

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow will only negotiate based on the original U.S.-Russia understandings from Anchorage, preemptively rejecting any revisions to the U.S. peace plan, TASS reported Nov. 25.

Russia, Ukraine: Lavrov Rejects Modified Peace Plan, Insists on Original Terms 

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan formally notified partners in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) consortium of its intention to acquire an up to 30% stake in the long-delayed gas pipeline project, Interfax reported Nov. 25.

Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan: Astana Seeks 30% Stake in TAPI Pipeline Consortium

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.K.: Chancellor Reeves Unveils Tax Hikes in Budget to Restore Stability Amid Weak Growth

Guinea-Bissau: Army Officers Say They Have Taken Control After President's Arrest

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Dismisses Prospects of Near-Term Peace

Saudi Arabia: Alcohol Stores for Non-Muslims To Open in Dhahran, Jeddah

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Central African Republic, Rwanda: Leaders Discuss Security Ahead of CAR's Presidential Election

Lebanon, Cyprus: Maritime Demarcation Agreement Reached

Uganda: Opposition Reports More Than 300 Supporters Detained Ahead of Election

Russia, Ukraine: Lavrov Rejects Modified Peace Plan, Insists on Original Terms

Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan: Astana Seeks 30% Stake in TAPI Pipeline Consortium

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