Assessments

Angola

South Africa

United States

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

Banners bearing portraits of leaders of the G20 on Nov. 20 in Johannesburg. The South African government has focused the G20 summit's agenda on issues key to African countries.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A High-Stakes British Budget, South Africa Hosts the G20

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 20, 2025

Snapshots

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

Italy

Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on March 18 in the Italian Senate in Rome. Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Modest Growth and Spending Pressures Will Limit Italy's Debt Reduction Efforts

Media

Israel

Indonesia

Podcasts

What is the outlook for Indonesia-Israel normalization, and what would that process look like?

Essential Geopolitics: Indonesia's Interest in Israel-Gaza

Canada

The clock tower outside of Canada's parliament building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario.

Global Trade

Canada's push to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties beyond the U.S. will likely see slow progress and could prompt U.S. retaliation, while the associated deficit spending will risk long-term fiscal strain.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Kazakhstan

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address participants of the 21st Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link during their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 12, 2025. 

Energy

The deals signed during Kazakh President Tokayev's recent trip to Moscow will provide Astana with short-term stability but will limit its strategic autonomy and ability to further engage with the West, while heightening its exposure to Russian coercion.

What Russia's Courtship of Kazakhstan Says About the Shifting Balance of Power in Eurasia

Sudan

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum. 

While the likelihood of a humanitarian truce between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is rising, meaningful progress beyond a tentative permanent ceasefire currently appears unlikely.

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Palestinian Territories

Excavation crews work amid rubble in Hamad City, west of Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The extended timeline for reconstruction ensures dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza will likely persist for years, fueling future radicalization and significant population displacement.

Gaza Reconstruction Likely To Take Years and Fuel Palestinian Emigration

Chile

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Cambodia

Thailand

India

Pakistan

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote. Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Latest

Syria

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa delivers a speech in Damascus on July 3, 2025, during the unveiling of the "New Visual Identity of the Syrian Arab Republic." 

The transitional government's decision will boost reconstruction and counter-terrorism efforts, but it will also risk alienating internal hard-liners and could eventually fuel an Islamic State resurgence if Syria's economic recovery stalls.

The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State

The Pentagon viewed from above.

A strategic shift to prioritize commercially available technology over bespoke solutions aims to deliver capabilities faster, though it faces constraints and introduces risks to quality and cost.

New U.S. Defense Acquisition Reforms Offer Opportunities for Improvements, but Longstanding Constraints Remain

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Honduras

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Columns

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Tunisia

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Armenia

Kazakhstan and Armenia upgraded their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership during Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's state visit to Astana, Aqorda reported Nov. 21. 

Kazakhstan, Armenia: Leaders Elevate Relations To Strategic Partnership

Brazil

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to remove 40% tariffs on some Brazilian food products, including beef, coffee, cocoa and fruits, with the order retroactively affecting Brazilian imports to the United States starting Nov. 13, the White House said in a statement issued Nov. 20. 

Brazil, U.S.: White House Announces Removal of Some 40% Tariffs on Brazil

Mozambique

U.S. multinational energy company ExxonMobil announced that it had lifted force majeure on its $30 billion Rovuma LNG project, Reuters reported on Nov. 20.

Mozambique: ExxonMobil Lifts Force Majeure on Rovuma LNG in Major Boost to Maputo 

Europe

Science & Technology

South Africa signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Union on the formation of a Clean Trade and Investment Partnership, or CTIP, and another on the development of critical mineral supply chains, Daily Maverick reported Nov. 21.

South Africa: Pretoria Strikes Clean Trade and Energy Partnership, MoU on Critical Minerals With EU

Tanzania

Zambia

Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema launched the start of rehabilitation works on the Tazara rail line, which connects Zambia's copper-rich regions to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 21.

Zambia: Government Launches Rehabilitation of Tazara Line With China, Tanzania

India announced the implementation of four new labor codes aimed at modernizing and streamlining the country's decades-old labor laws, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 21.

India: Federal Government Implements Labor Codes

The United States is considering sanctions and increased Pentagon engagement to pressure Nigeria to better protect Christian communities and uphold religious freedoms, Reuters reported on Nov. 21.

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Considers Sanctions and Military Engagement Over Christian Protection Concerns

Iraq

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

China's top general, Zhang Youxia, met Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov in Moscow for the countries' highest-level military talks in two years, with both sides pledging deeper cooperation, including on missile defense and reducing the risk of nuclear miscalculation, the South China Morning Post reported on Nov. 21.

China, Russia: Militaries Pledge Deeper Missile Defense and Strategic Cooperation

The European Commission announced on Nov. 21 that it had opened a case against Slovakia for allegedly breaching EU law via a constitutional change adopted in September that said Slovak laws would take precedence in matters regarding "national identity," such as family and gender issues.

Slovakia: European Commission Begins Infringement Procedure Over Contentious Constitutional Amendment

Libya

The three main political powers based in western Libya, including Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, announced the formation of the High Authority of Presidencies designed to strengthen their coordination, especially in negotiations on the national stage with eastern Libyan officials, Al-Wasat reported on Nov. 20. 

Libya: Western Libyan Political Leaders Create Coordination Body

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan, Armenia: Leaders Elevate Relations To Strategic Partnership

Brazil, U.S.: White House Announces Removal of Some 40% Tariffs on Brazil

Mozambique: ExxonMobil Lifts Force Majeure on Rovuma LNG in Major Boost to Maputo

South Africa: Pretoria Strikes Clean Trade and Energy Partnership, MoU on Critical Minerals With EU

Zambia: Government Launches Rehabilitation of Tazara Line With China, Tanzania

India: Federal Government Implements Labor Codes

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Considers Sanctions and Military Engagement Over Christian Protection Concerns

China, Russia: Militaries Pledge Deeper Missile Defense and Strategic Cooperation

Slovakia: European Commission Begins Infringement Procedure Over Contentious Constitutional Amendment

Libya: Western Libyan Political Leaders Create Coordination Body

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