Assessments

Ukraine

Russia

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 23, 2026

China

A decorative plate featuring an image of Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen behind a statue of late communist leader Mao Zedong at a souvenir store next to Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, on Feb. 27, 2018. 

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Social Issues

China will remain a geopolitical enigma to the West as Beijing turns inward to insulate the CCP from the influence of external powers, an exercise that history suggests will threaten national prosperity and regime stability.

The Modern Geopolitics of China

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Vietnam

A large container ship is seen docked at a port. 

Though interim measures or narrower agreements are plausible, Vietnam's dependence on Chinese inputs will likely prevent a comprehensive agreement, potentially exposing it to stricter U.S. scrutiny and new tariffs.

Vietnam's Reliance on Chinese Imports Complicates U.S. Trade Talks

Iran

Myanmar

Philippines

United Kingdom

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head during funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leade, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 5 in Tehran, Iran.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, ASEAN and Major Power Foreign Ministers Meet

U.S.-Iran Relations

Bangladesh

India

Then-Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina arrives for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on July 5, 2019.

The former leader's pledged return from exile risks triggering violent unrest and would likely do little to bolster her party's near-term political prospects, but it could eventually help ease tensions with India.

What Sheikh Hasina's Return Would Mean for Bangladesh's Political Future

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Vessels are seen anchored along the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, 2026. 

By demanding investment pledges from Gulf states after threatening a 20% toll, the White House is signaling its defense of global trade routes is now a transactional service rather than a core strategic commitment.

Security as a Service: The Risks of Trump's Transactionalism in the Strait of Hormuz

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Guyana

Peru

Venezuela

Pilgrims with flags from different countries gather at Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 23, 2013, as they wait for the official opening of the Catholic Church's World Youth Day, which will be celebrated with a holy Mass. 

Energy

As many South American countries embrace right-leaning governments, their policies will increasingly align with those of the U.S. Trump administration, opening them to increased security cooperation, although economic integration remains unlikely.

What South America's Rightward Political Shift Means for U.S. Relations

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 16, 2026

The U.S. and Indian flags adorn the Eisenhower Executive Office Building of the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 20, 2023.

While the ban could prompt the U.S. to lower its proposed Section 301 tariff on India from 12.5% to 10%, unresolved concerns over manufacturing overcapacity will sustain the risk of broader, sector-specific tariffs.

India Imposes Forced Labor Import Ban to Reduce U.S. Tariff Exposure

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Podcasts

Which Sub-Saharan countries face the highest risk of protests and unrest in the coming months?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Latest

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

A 20 euro note.

The European Union is likely to advance banking reforms in 2027 that reduce internal barriers to cross-border banking, boosting its financial competitiveness by freeing up funds tied up in savings, but will stop short of significantly greater fiscal and financial risk sharing.

Brussels Seeks To Boost the EU Banking Sector's Competitiveness

Middle East and North Africa

Israel

Yemeni protesters take part in a demonstration held to send a message of defiance against the continued siege and any military escalation involving Saudi forces against Houthi-controlled northern Yemen on July 17. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Forced to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's increased reliance on alternative routes leaves its critical oil shipments vulnerable to Houthi attacks.


Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

A giant Indian flag is displayed from the country's embassy in London on May 7, 2025.

While the agreement will support both countries' economic diversification efforts, U.K. regulatory standards and supply chain challenges will limit some gains for India.

What To Expect as the India-U.K. Trade Deal Enters Force

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

Palestinian Territories

People gather by the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike on an industrial area in Gaza City on July 12.

Hamas will likely continue to reject full disarmament in the hope that a more moderate Israeli government will come to power following elections in the fall.


Unfeasible Plans for Gaza Governance Hinder Progress of U.S-Backed Ceasefire 

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Europe

EU flags are displayed in the EU Council headquarters on July 9, 2026, in Brussels, Belgium.

While the European Union is unlikely to adopt the Spanish plan, it could drive an incremental expansion of common borrowing for strategic priorities like defense and industrial competitiveness.


Spain Broaches EU Taboo With Common Debt Proposal

Columns

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Taiwan

China's Maritime Safety Administration announced on July 23 that the military would conduct live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait from July 23-24, lasting from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. each day.

China, Taiwan: Coastal Live-Fire Drills Suggest Calculated Restraint 

Australia

New Zealand

Papua New Guinea

New Zealand and Papua New Guinea signed a 2026-29 framework to expand defense planning, training, exercises and personnel exchanges, Reuters reported on July 23.

New Zealand, Papua New Guinea: Defense Agreement Reinforces Western Security Alignment

Thailand

Unidentified gunmen killed five Thai paramilitary rangers and wounded six civilians, including two young children, with assault rifles and pipe bombs at a checkpoint in Narathiwat province in Thailand's deep south, the Nation Thailand reported on July 23.

Thailand: Five Security Personnel Killed, Six Civilians Wounded in Deep South Attack

A Chinese coast guard vessel fired its water cannon for more than two minutes at a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel near the Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea, scoring only an indirect hit, during a resupply mission of the latter vessel, Reuters reported on July 23.

China, Philippines: Water Cannon Incident Marks Second South China Sea Confrontation in Four Days

Canada

Mexico

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he expected to reach interim trade deals with Mexico and Canada by the end of 2026, while more complex issues, such as rules of origin and higher labor and environmental requirements, will be left for 2027, Reuters reported on July 22.

U.S., Mexico, Canada: U.S. Aims for Interim Deals With Canada and Mexico by Year-End

U.S. officials said the U.S. military used a B-1 bomber for the first time in the renewed conflict with Iran to conduct July 21 attacks on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets, Axios reported on July 22.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Uses B-1 Bombers for First Time in Renewed Conflict 

Mali

The United States is considering taking military action in Mali against al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, The Washington Post reported on July 22, citing statements from current and former officials of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. 

Mali: Trump Administration Eyes Military Action Against JNIM

Science & Technology

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

On July 21, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that generic drugs imported into the United States will remain tariff-free for two years from Aug. 1, after which duties will increase to 100% for one year and then to 200%, Bloomberg reported on July 22. 

India, U.S.: U.S. To Impose Graduated Tariffs on Generic Drug Imports After Two Years

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty accused Ethiopia of causing a reduction in downstream water levels on the Blue Nile in Sudan due to its unilateral operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Anadolu reported on July 22.

Nile Basin: Egypt, Sudan Slam Ethiopia Over Renaissance Dam's Unilateral Water Retention

Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries warehouses in Krasnodar and Nevinnomyssk, injuring several workers and extending a series of attacks on Russia's largest online retailer, Reuters reported on July 22. 

Russia, Ukraine: Strikes on Russian Online Retailer Drag Russia's Consumer Economy Into the War

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Taiwan: Coastal Live-Fire Drills Suggest Calculated Restraint

New Zealand, Papua New Guinea: Defense Agreement Reinforces Western Security Alignment

Thailand: Five Security Personnel Killed, Six Civilians Wounded in Deep South Attack

China, Philippines: Water Cannon Incident Marks Second South China Sea Confrontation in Four Days

U.S., Mexico, Canada: U.S. Aims for Interim Deals With Canada and Mexico by Year-End

U.S., Iran: U.S. Uses B-1 Bombers for First Time in Renewed Conflict

Mali: Trump Administration Eyes Military Action Against JNIM

India, U.S.: U.S. To Impose Graduated Tariffs on Generic Drug Imports After Two Years

Nile Basin: Egypt, Sudan Slam Ethiopia Over Renaissance Dam's Unilateral Water Retention

Russia, Ukraine: Strikes on Russian Online Retailer Drag Russia's Consumer Economy Into the War

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