Assessments

Benin

Uganda

Canada

United States

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

China

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Podcasts

What are the key factors shaping political dynamics in the region?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for European Politics in 2026

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Israel

Syria

Turkey

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

Columns

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Snapshots

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 8, 2026

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

Economics

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

U.S.-Iran Relations

Mexico

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

Energy

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Social Issues

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Europe

Russia

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

U.S.-China Relations

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Latest

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland. 

The United States' aim to acquire Greenland risks triggering a NATO crisis if U.S. and European negotiators fail to reach a settlement.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Iraq

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Cuba

Taiwan

Norway

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

United Kingdom

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Kenya

Madagascar

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Somalia's federal government cancelled all port, security and commercial agreements with the United Arab Emirates on the basis that actions by the Emirati government were undermining the country's unity and territorial integrity, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 12. 

UAE, Somalia: Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland Reject Mogadishu's Rupture of Ties With Abu Dhabi

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki accused Ethiopia of declaring war on Eritrea in an interview aired on Eritrean state television, Addis Standard reported on Jan. 13. 

Eritrea: President Isaias Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War on Eritrea

France

French far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen appeared in court as appeal proceedings opened against her conviction for embezzling EU funds, a case that will determine whether she remains barred from public office or eligible to run for France's 2027 presidential election, Reuters reported on Jan. 13.

France: Le Pen's Appeal Case Begins, Determining Eligibility for 2027 Presidential Race

Science & Technology

Danish wind developer Orsted will be allowed to resume construction on its Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island after a federal judge on Jan. 12 issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Department of the Interior's December 2025 suspension of Orsted's lease for the project and an associated stop-work order on the project, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 13.

U.S.: Federal Judge Allows Orsted To Resume Construction on Revolution Wind Project

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Jan. 13 Truth Social post that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25% tariff when doing "any and all business" with the United States.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States was designating three chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as Specially Designated Global Terrorists, naming the chapters in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, the New York Post reported on Jan. 13.

U.S., MENA: Washington Labels Local Muslim Brotherhood Chapters as SDGTs

Bolivia

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz's government came to an agreement with protesting unions and activists to repeal Decree 5503, which declared an economic emergency, while maintaining the measures related to the removal of the fuel subsidy, DW reported on Jan. 11.

Bolivia: Government To Repeal Controversial Economic Decree, With Subsidy Cuts Remaining

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in India's western state of Gujarat, where the two leaders sought to deepen economic and security cooperation and signed agreements covering sectors ranging from critical minerals to traditional medicine, AP reported on Jan. 12.

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had approved and was conducting new covert and deep strike operations against Russia, Politico reported on Jan. 11. 

Ukraine: Zelensky Signals Expanded Special Operations as Diplomacy Stalls

Japan

Hirofumi Yoshimura, the head of the Japan Innovation Party, a coalition partner of the government, told reporters he believed elections for the lower house of parliament would soon occur following Jan. 9 talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Reuters reported on Jan. 11.

Japan: Takaichi Seriously Considering Risky Snap Elections

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

UAE, Somalia: Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland Reject Mogadishu's Rupture of Ties With Abu Dhabi

Eritrea: President Isaias Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War on Eritrea

France: Le Pen's Appeal Case Begins, Determining Eligibility for 2027 Presidential Race

U.S.: Federal Judge Allows Orsted To Resume Construction on Revolution Wind Project

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

U.S., MENA: Washington Labels Local Muslim Brotherhood Chapters as SDGTs

Bolivia: Government To Repeal Controversial Economic Decree, With Subsidy Cuts Remaining

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

Ukraine: Zelensky Signals Expanded Special Operations as Diplomacy Stalls

Japan: Takaichi Seriously Considering Risky Snap Elections

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