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Politics

How will Australian foreign policy change in the coming years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Australia's Political Landscape

Assessments

Kenya

South Africa

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Poland

Economics

Global Trade

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A U.S. Tariff Ruling, Israel's Opposition Seeks To Dissolve the Knesset

U.S.-China Relations

How will U.S. tariffs impact emerging markets?

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Global Economics

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Taiwan

Taiwanese lawmakers prepare to vote on reconsidering controversial bills in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 21, 2024. 

Political infighting since the president's inauguration has impeded Taiwan's efforts to bolster military spending and has prompted Chinese military and economic retaliation, which could eventually imperil U.S. trade and arms deals.

After One Year Under Lai, Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Shows Little Sign of Easing

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 5, 2025

Indonesia

Singapore

Vietnam

France

French President Emmanuel Macron holds a press briefing during his trip to Singapore on May 30, 2025. 

Energy

The deals reached with Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam expand France's role in Southeast Asia amid shifting global trade and defense dynamics, a welcome development for a region increasingly pinned between the U.S. and China.

Macron's Southeast Asia Tour Deepens French Footprint in the Region

Turkey

Europe

Russia

India

Pakistan

The Geopolitics of Trade

Turkey's export strategy necessitates trade partnerships with countries in many different spheres of influence, portending both risks and opportunities as Ankara attempts to maintain its neutral middle-power status.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Turkey's Export Strategy Hinges on Neutrality

Will the cease-fire between the two countries last?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India-Pakistan Relations

South Korea

Lee Jae-myung and his wife celebrate his projected victory in South Korea's presidential election on June 4, 2025, in Seoul, South Korea.

Lee Jae-myung and his progressive party will pursue pro-labor domestic policies, along with U.S. tariff relief and improved ties with China and North Korea.

After Months of Political Tumult, South Korea Elects a New President

Global Elections

Snapshots

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (left), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), addresses the media after attending the weekly coalition talks in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 3, 2025.

The far-right party's exit from the ruling coalition will likely trigger early elections, leading to a prolonged period of political uncertainty amid complex coalition-building and months of caretaker governance.

The Netherlands Descends Into Political Crisis After Government Collapses

Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki waves to supporters in Warsaw, Poland, following the presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The incoming conservative president will likely veto many of the centrist government's domestic reforms, while his euroskeptic views will sustain foreign policy incoherence, potentially undermining Poland's economic outlook and its credibility as a regional leader.

Poland Braces for More Political Gridlock Following Nawrocki's Presidential Victory

Latest

A stock image showing industrial magnet parts.

Environment, Science & Technology

China will likely continue to wield export restrictions on rare earth elements and related magnets in response to future U.S. restrictions, sustaining a high risk of supply chain disruptions, particularly for automakers.

In Trade War With U.S., China Finds a Pressure Point With Magnet Restrictions

National Guard troops stand in front of a government building during a protest in Los Angeles, California, on June 8, 2025. 

Social Issues

The White House's deployment of National Guard troops to the Los Angeles protests reflects an increasingly aggressive mass deportation effort, and intense pushback against it, that set the stage for more unrest, legal standoffs and economic uncertainty.

By Deploying the National Guard to LA, Trump Doubles Down on His Mass Deportation Efforts

Lebanon

Smoke and fire erupted from the site of an Israeli airstrike on a suburb south of Beirut, Lebanon, on June 5, 2025. 

The attacks appear designed to keep Hezbollah weak, while pressuring the Lebanese government to take quicker and more aggressive steps toward the group's disarmament. 

What To Make of Israel's Latest Strikes on Lebanon

Canada

Mexico

Japan

A U.S. courthouse facade with columns in lower Manhattan, New York.

The court ruling nullifies most -- though not all -- of the Trump administration's tariffs, giving U.S. trading partners temporary breathing room in negotiations while the White House searches for alternative trade measures.

The White House's Tariff Ambitions Bend -- But Do Not Break -- Under the Weight of a Court Ruling

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat during a Liberal Party election night event on May 3, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia. 

The collapse of the center-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNC) will grant the ruling Labor Party freer rein to implement energy transition, industrial investment and fiscal reform policies.

Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor

Philippines

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

Romania

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iraq

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

Iran

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Ukraine

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

Science & Technology

U.S.-China trade talks in London will continue into a second day, following six hours of talks on June 8 that U.S. officials described as "good" and "fruitful," Bloomberg reported on June 9.

U.S., China: Negotiators Extend London Trade Talks Amid Export Control Discussions

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, announced on the evening of June 6 that the country would hold elections in the first half of April 2026, Reuters reported the same day. 

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Says Elections To Be Held in Early April 2026

The Seoul High Court decided to indefinitely delay a case against President Lee Jae-myung for alleged election law violation, citing Article 84 of the constitution, Yonhap News Agency reported on June 9.

South Korea: President Lee Dodges One Court Case, Four More To Go

Cambodia

Thailand

Cambodia agreed to move recently deployed troops from their positions along disputed areas of the Cambodia-Thailand border following Thai economic pressure, including border crossing and visa restrictions for Cambodian visitors, the Bangkok Post reported on June 9.

Thailand, Cambodia: Cambodian Troops 'Reposition' Away From Border

The European Union and Indonesia concluded negotiations on their Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or CEPA, following nine years of negotiations, The Jakarta Globe reported on June 8.

EU, Indonesia: Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Concluded

The Malian army withdrew from the strategic Boulkessi military camp near the Mali-Burkina Faso border in what officials described as a "strategic redeployment" to enhance operational mobility, Radio France Internationale reported on June 8.

Mali: Army Withdraws From Key Military Base Following Jihadist Attacks

Colombia

A 15-year-old boy shot Colombian right-wing presidential hopeful Sen. Miguel Uribe at a campaign event in Bogota, landing Uribe in intensive care, El Colombiano reported on June 7.

Colombia: Attempted Assassination of Right-Wing Presidential Hopeful To Fuel Polarization, Instability

The Israel Defense Forces intercepted the Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla Coalition vessel, the Madleen, and 12 humanitarian activists onboard, including climate activist Greta Thunberg and a French member of the European Parliament, CNN reported on June 9.

Israel: IDF Intercepts Gaza-Bound Aid Flotilla

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

Italy

Italy's two-day referendum on proposed citizenship and labor law reforms failed to reach the required 50% turnout threshold, rendering the vote invalid, Corriere della Sera reported on June 9.

Italy: Opposition's Referendum on Citizenship and Labor Rights Falls Short of Required Quorum

The U.S. and Chinese trade teams will meet in London on June 9 to discuss trade issues, according to a June 6 post by U.S. President Donald Trump on Truth Social. 

U.S., China: Trade Teams to Meet in London Following Xi-Trump Call

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

In Trade War With U.S., China Finds a Pressure Point With Magnet Restrictions

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., China: Negotiators Extend London Trade Talks Amid Export Control Discussions

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Says Elections To Be Held in Early April 2026

South Korea: President Lee Dodges One Court Case, Four More To Go

Thailand, Cambodia: Cambodian Troops 'Reposition' Away From Border

EU, Indonesia: Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Concluded

Mali: Army Withdraws From Key Military Base Following Jihadist Attacks

Colombia: Attempted Assassination of Right-Wing Presidential Hopeful To Fuel Polarization, Instability

Israel: IDF Intercepts Gaza-Bound Aid Flotilla

Italy: Opposition's Referendum on Citizenship and Labor Rights Falls Short of Required Quorum

U.S., China: Trade Teams to Meet in London Following Xi-Trump Call

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