Assessments

Colombia

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker on April 28 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Discussions, Brussels To Unveil Tech Sovereignty Package

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Spain

A National Police van is parked in front of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party headquarters during the Civil Guard's police search on May 27, 2026, in Madrid, Spain. 

Widening inquiries into public procurement and influence peddling will continue to weaken the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Scandals Linked to Spanish PM Sanchez Point to Continued Political Paralysis 

Ukraine

Russia

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Economics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 28, 2026

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivers remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

Prime Minister Abiy will likely be reelected without sustained unrest, but escalating tensions in Tigray could still fuel a worsening security crisis in the Amhara and/or Oromia regions in a less-likely, higher-impact scenario.

Previewing Ethiopia's General Elections

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

The USS Rafael Peralta implements a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on April 26, 2026, in the Arabian Sea.

Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement, unresolved disputes and continued hostilities make prolonged, unstable containment more likely than a comprehensive, long-lasting peace agreement.

U.S.-Iran Talks More Likely To Contain the War Than Resolve It

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Global Trade

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile are poised to benefit from the expected rise in lithium demand in the coming years, but they are unlikely to see a substantial surge in wealth without a more monumental market change.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 2

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile have had varying degrees of success in developing their lithium production capacity, with Chile achieving the greatest success of the three, and Bolivia lagging behind.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 1

Japan

Philippines

Armenia

Kazakhstan

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Cuba

Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche (center) speaks during a news conference announcing the indictment of former Cuban president Raul Castro, at the Freedom Tower in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2026.

Energy

Recent U.S. escalations against Cuba are creating a pretext for kinetic action, most likely a targeted operation to capture key officials, though an airstrike campaign and/or a ground deployment also remain possible.

Assessing the Potential for U.S. Military Action in Cuba

Latest

Supporters of Colombian presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda wave flags ahead of his closing campaign rally in Barranquilla, Colombia, on May 24, 2026.

A left-wing victory would portend increased social spending and policy gridlock, a far-right win would portend austerity and decree-based governance, and a center-right win would foster market-friendly policies and stability.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

A fireball and smoke erupt from a building following an Israeli strike in Tyre, southern Lebanon, on May 28.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The recent expansion of Israeli operations in southern Lebanon demonstrates an effort to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities prior to any finalized de-escalation agreements between the United States and Iran.


The Strategic Implications of Israel's Expanded Lebanon Campaign

The Japanese flag flies outside the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in central Tokyo on March 19, 2024. 

Monetary tightening will increase government interest payments and fiscal deficits, but the impact on debt dynamics and defense spending will remain manageable, provided the central bank avoids large-scale government bond sales.

How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact Japan's Debt Outlook?

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted a drone and missile attack on June 1, the same day that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it had responded to a U.S. attack on an Iranian telecommunications tower, AP reported on June 1.

U.S., Iran: U.S. and Iran Renew Clashes, Iran Reportedly Suspends Discussions With Washington

Vietnam

The U.S. Trade Representative launched a Section 301 investigation into Vietnam's intellectual property protection and enforcement practices, Reuters reported on May 29.

Vietnam, U.S.: IP Probe Adds New Pressure to Trade Talks

Cyber

Science & Technology

The Philippines and Vietnam upgraded ties to an enhanced strategic partnership during Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam's May 31-June 1 state visit to Manila, Reuters reported on June 1.

Philippines, Vietnam: Manila, Hanoi Upgrade Ties Amid South China Sea Pressure

Australia

The United States, the United Kingdom and Australia announced that they will jointly develop uncrewed undersea vehicles, or UUVs, marking the first project under Pillar II of their 2021 AUKUS pact, with deliveries set to begin in 2027, Politico reported on June 1.

Australia, U.S., U.K.: AUKUS Partners Announce Undersea Drone Project

Israel's military issued evacuation orders for civilians in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, Reuters reported on May 31.

Lebanon, Israel: IDF To Strike Beirut, Deepen Operations as Hezbollah Intensifies Attacks

Belarus

Kyrgyzstan

Leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia issued a joint statement calling for Armenia to hold a referendum on whether to pursue EU membership or remain in the Eurasian Economic Union, and asking their governments to report by December on the possible consequences of suspending the EAEU treaty's application to Armenia, TASS reported on May 29.

Armenia: EAEU Leaders Threaten To Review Armenia's Membership Amid EU Bid

European commissioners met to discuss measures aimed at shielding EU industries from a surge in subsidized Chinese imports and securing alternative supplies of critical minerals and key inputs to reduce reliance on Beijing, the European Commission said in a May 29 statement.

EU, China: European Commissioners Weigh Tougher Trade Defenses Against China

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Brazil

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump designated Brazil's two largest organized criminal organizations, Primeiro Comando da Capital and the Comando Vermelho, as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in a press statement May 28.

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Designates Two Brazilian Criminal Groups as Terrorist Organizations  

Despite reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had reached a memorandum of understanding, a May 29 report from Tasnim News, which is linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the text had not been finalized or approved. 

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Rejects Reports of a Finalized U.S.-Iran MoU

Malaysia

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is facing growing pressure from both high-profile and rank-and-file defections within his People's Justice Party (PKR), with roughly 6,000 former PKR members in recent weeks applying to join a newly revamped Bersama party led by former economy minister Rafizi Ramli, Reuters reported May 29.

Malaysia: Prime Minister Weighing Snap Elections as Pressures Mount

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: U.S. and Iran Renew Clashes, Iran Reportedly Suspends Discussions With Washington

Vietnam, U.S.: IP Probe Adds New Pressure to Trade Talks

Philippines, Vietnam: Manila, Hanoi Upgrade Ties Amid South China Sea Pressure

Australia, U.S., U.K.: AUKUS Partners Announce Undersea Drone Project

Lebanon, Israel: IDF To Strike Beirut, Deepen Operations as Hezbollah Intensifies Attacks

Armenia: EAEU Leaders Threaten To Review Armenia's Membership Amid EU Bid

EU, China: European Commissioners Weigh Tougher Trade Defenses Against China

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Designates Two Brazilian Criminal Groups as Terrorist Organizations

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Rejects Reports of a Finalized U.S.-Iran MoU

Malaysia: Prime Minister Weighing Snap Elections as Pressures Mount

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