Assessments

Canada

United States

Iran

Australia

China

Japan

Germany

India

The Tehran skyline on Dec. 30, 2025. On March 2, U.S. and Iranian negotiators will meet in Vienna, Austria, to begin technical talks on a nuclear deal.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Conflict in the Middle East, Merz meets Trump 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) shakes hands with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace on Feb. 19, 2026, in Washington, D.C.

Yerevan and Baku's efforts to finalize a peace treaty and realign toward the West will be tested by Russian influence operations ahead of Armenian elections and Iran's competing geopolitical interests.

To Escape Russia's Orbit, Armenia and Azerbaijan Turn to Each Other -- and the West

Lebanon

Lebanese flags fly outside of Lebanon's central bank in July 2023.

The proposed "gap law" for repaying depositors could unlock an IMF bailout and boost economic growth. But success is far from certain, as both passing and implementing the reform will prove challenging.

Will Lebanon's Draft Banking Law Unlock an IMF Deal?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 26, 2026

Europe

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Taiwan

A video interview of Taiwanese President William Lai plays onstage during The New York Times DealBook Summit 2025 at Jazz at Lincoln Center on Dec. 3, 2025, in New York City.

President Lai's political disputes with the legislature are unlikely to ease anytime soon, which could disrupt U.S. trade and arms deals and/or jeopardize future opportunities for diplomatic engagement with China.

Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Goes Global

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Columns

On Geopolitics

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Israel

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

European Union and Australian flags together.

Global Trade

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Latest

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

The Crown Plaza on March 1 showing damage from an Iranian military strike in Manama, Bahrain. Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

The Implications of Iran's Attacks on the Gulf

Palestinian Territories

A view shows tents near the Port of Gaza in the Gaza Strip on Feb. 9, 2026.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

With its focus on Iran, the U.S. is unlikely to greenlight a major new Israeli offensive in Gaza anytime soon, which will complicate Netanyahu's efforts to remove Hamas from the Strip before the October elections.

Netanyahu Will Struggle To Defeat Hamas Before Israeli Elections

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

South Korea

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Middle East and North Africa

Energy

On March 1, following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Guardian Council member Alireza Arafi was appointed to Iran's Leadership Council, alongside President Masoud Pezeshkian and Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, to exercise the Supreme Leader's powers until a permanent successor is chosen, Al Jazeera reported the same day. 

Iran: Transitional Council Appointed To Lead Country Following Khamenei Assassination

Shootings, arson attacks and blockades by the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, or CJNG, in response to the Feb. 22 operation that resulted in the death of the group's leader, Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," have declined substantially as of Feb. 27, BorderReport reported the same day.

Mexico: Violence Declines Following Surge After Death of Cartel Leader 

South Korea's ruling Democratic Party, or DPK, in the National Assembly passed a law that allows the Constitutional Court to review rulings by lower courts, including the Supreme Court, Yonhap News Agency reported on Feb. 27. 

South Korea: Ruling Party's Curbs on Judiciary Empower President Lee

South Korea's infrastructure ministry announced that it would allow Google to export government-provided precise map data to overseas premises "on condition that Google strictly comply with security guidelines," Yonhap News Agency reported on Feb. 27.

South Korea: Seoul Permits Google Navigation, Will Facilitate U.S. Trade Deal

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) inspect the honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony at the presidential complex in Ankara, Turkey, on June 22, 2022.

After years of discord, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are finding common ground as they increasingly position themselves against Emirati- and Israeli-backed regional initiatives. 

Saudi Arabia and Turkey's New Regional Alignment

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

A local ceasefire took effect near the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to enable repairs to a damaged external power line, Reuters reported on Feb. 27, citing Russian officials.

Russia, Ukraine: Temporary Truce at Zaporizhzhia Plant Masks Persistent Nuclear Risk

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding according to which Washington will provide up to $900 million in assistance for Congo's health care sector over 2026-31, while Congo will increase its domestic health expenditure by $300 million over the same period, Reuters reported on Feb. 26.

Congo: Kinshasa Signs $1.2B Health Deal With Trump Administration, Despite Africa CDC Warnings

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the European Union will provisionally apply its trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc before full ratification, Euractiv reported on Feb. 27.

EU, Mercosur: Brussels Moves To Provisionally Apply Mercosur Trade Deal Before Full Ratification

The U.S. State Department authorized the departure of nonemergency personnel and family members from the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem and its branch office in Tel Aviv, Axios reported on Feb. 27.

Iran, U.S.: U.S. Evacuates Israeli Embassy After Geneva Talks Conclude, Vienna Talks Scheduled

The U.S. State Department warned Syria's Communications Minister Abdulsalam Haykal in San Francisco earlier the week of Feb. 23 to avoid relying on Chinese telecommunications technology, Reuters reported on Feb. 27.

U.S., Syria: U.S. Warns Syria Against Chinese Telecoms

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

The United Kingdom hosted the inaugural Central Asia-U.K. (CA5+UK) foreign ministers' meeting in London, the British Foreign Office said on Feb. 26.

Central Asia, U.K.: London Launches Critical Minerals Push Across the Region

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Implications of Iran's Attacks on the Gulf

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran: Transitional Council Appointed To Lead Country Following Khamenei Assassination

Mexico: Violence Declines Following Surge After Death of Cartel Leader

South Korea: Ruling Party's Curbs on Judiciary Empower President Lee

South Korea: Seoul Permits Google Navigation, Will Facilitate U.S. Trade Deal

Russia, Ukraine: Temporary Truce at Zaporizhzhia Plant Masks Persistent Nuclear Risk

Congo: Kinshasa Signs $1.2B Health Deal With Trump Administration, Despite Africa CDC Warnings

EU, Mercosur: Brussels Moves To Provisionally Apply Mercosur Trade Deal Before Full Ratification

Iran, U.S.: U.S. Evacuates Israeli Embassy After Geneva Talks Conclude, Vienna Talks Scheduled

U.S., Syria: U.S. Warns Syria Against Chinese Telecoms

Central Asia, U.K.: London Launches Critical Minerals Push Across the Region

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