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Middle East and North Africa

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Europe

Eurasia

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Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

United States

Iran

Israel

Australia

China

Japan

India

A photo taken in Tehran, Iran, on June 26, 2025, shows an Iranian political banner hanging near the remains of a residential building struck by an Israeli attack. 

Global Trade

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 26, 2025

Snapshots

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024. 

The prime minister's escalating dispute with the national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church

New Zealand

People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day. 

Prime Minister Luxon's recent trip to China marked a high-stakes diplomatic mission aimed at both deepening economic ties with Beijing and signaling New Zealand's more assertive regional posture.

New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference at a hotel in Paris on June 24, 2025. 

The collapse of negotiations over potential changes to President Macron's controversial pensions reform will increase the risk of more no-confidence votes against the government, budgetary deadlock and another early election.

In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability

Iranian missiles aimed at targets in Israel pass through the sky over the West Bank on June 17, 2025. 

Even if the ceasefire holds in the coming weeks and months, outstanding U.S. and Israeli concerns with Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs could reignite hostilities.

The Iran-Israel Ceasefire Will Remain Fragile Amid Unresolved Disputes

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

What cyber limitations and capabilities do Iran and Israel have?

Essential Geopolitics: Increased Risk of Cyberattacks as Conflict With Iran Escalates

Qatar

A photo taken on June 23, 2025, shows the remnants of an Iranian missile intercepted over Qatar. 

Absent further retaliation, Iran's June 23 attack offers a path to de-escalation, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict.

With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions

Netherlands

Spain

The entrance of the building where the 2025 NATO summit will be held is seen in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 22, 2025.

The June 24-25 summit will likely yield a political agreement on higher defense spending and highlight Europe's move toward greater defense autonomy, though structural and financial limitations will make it hard to maintain this shift over time. 

Previewing the 2025 NATO Summit

A Northrop B-2 Spirit on July 4, 2020, near the White House in Washington. 

Energy

Even if carefully calibrated, Iranian retaliation of any form will risk inviting more U.S. strikes and greater escalation that could result in Iran following through on more of its significant threats against the regional oil and gas sector and/or the United States.

Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation

Latest

Pakistan

Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025. 

Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair. 

Despite the ceasefire, the risk of a renewed conflict remains, which could again drive oil prices higher if Iran and/or its proxies begin attacking regional oil infrastructure and shipping.

Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Ukraine

Russia

Israeli air defense systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv early on June 18, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict Rages On, NATO Holds Annual Summit

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. 

The Israel-Iran conflict is set to evolve into a short war of attrition as Iran pits its degraded missile stocks against Israel's dwindling air defense systems.

Assessing the Trajectory of the Iran-Israel War

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Iraq

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

U.S.-China Relations

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Quarterly

Forecasts

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast

Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a June 27 Truth Social post that the United States would immediately terminate all trade talks with Canada and impose new tariffs on Canadian goods within the next seven days due to Canada's digital services tax going into effect. 

U.S., Canada: Trump Says Trade Talks With Canada Will End Over Digital Services Tax

Science & Technology

Brazil's Supreme Court ruled on June 26 that social media platforms can be held legally responsible for users' posts, the Financial Times reported on June 27.

Brazil: Supreme Court Ruling Holds Digital Platforms Liable for Users' Posts

United Kingdom

Australia's Defense Department slashed maintenance and training budgets by 10% to help pay for AUKUS submarines and missile purchases, sparking warnings that Australian Defense Force personnel, warships and aircraft were no longer fully operational, The Australian Financial Review reported on June 27. 

Australia: Naval Deficiencies Spell More Risk for AUKUS

China removed Gen. Miao Hua from the Central Military Commission and expelled Navy Chief of Staff Vice Adm. Li Hanjun and nuclear scientist Liu Shipeng from the National People's Congress, marking a sharp escalation in Chinese President Xi Jinping's military purge, the South China Morning Post reported on June 27. 

China: Removal of Commanders, Nuclear Scientist Signals Deepening Military Purge

The United States and China finalized their June framework trade agreement under which China has pledged to resume rare earth exports to the United States in exchange for rollbacks of certain U.S. trade restrictions on non-sensitive goods, like ethane and air components, Bloomberg reported on June 27. 

China, U.S.: Washington, Beijing Finalize Rare Earth Trade Truce

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to media during the closing press conference of the G7 Summit in Fasano, Italy, on June 15, 2024. 

Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan into EU policy to gain support for its immediate goals of energy security and migration control, but structural issues will likely limit Rome's long-term influence in Africa.

Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 19, 2025

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

In a break from routine, Turkey will not increase its minimum wage mid-year in a bid to further cool inflation and appease investors concerned about the country's economic strategy, Bloomberg reported on June 27.

Turkey: Ankara To Skip Mid-Year Minimum Wage Raise

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will water down key parts of planned welfare reforms in response to mounting pressure from within his own Labour Party, the BBC reported June 27. 

U.K.: Labour Government Scales Back Welfare Cuts to Avoid Internal Rebellion

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu brokered a deal between Minister for the Federal Capital Territory Nyesom Wike and suspended Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara over the ongoing political crisis in Rivers state, The Punch reported June 27.

Nigeria: Tinubu Brokers Deal Between Wike and Fubara Over Rivers Crisis

The European Union on June 26 failed to agree on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to refusals by Hungary and Slovakia, but the bloc agreed to extend for another six months all current sanctions against Russia, The Guardian reported on June 27.

EU: Bloc Fails To Adopt New Sanctions Package Against Russia

Canada approved a landmark law to implement the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act, The National Post reported June 26.

Canada: Landmark Legislation Passes to Narrow Intraprovincial Barriers and Speed Up Major Projects

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Canada: Trump Says Trade Talks With Canada Will End Over Digital Services Tax

Brazil: Supreme Court Ruling Holds Digital Platforms Liable for Users' Posts

Australia: Naval Deficiencies Spell More Risk for AUKUS

China: Removal of Commanders, Nuclear Scientist Signals Deepening Military Purge

China, U.S.: Washington, Beijing Finalize Rare Earth Trade Truce

Turkey: Ankara To Skip Mid-Year Minimum Wage Raise

U.K.: Labour Government Scales Back Welfare Cuts to Avoid Internal Rebellion

Nigeria: Tinubu Brokers Deal Between Wike and Fubara Over Rivers Crisis

EU: Bloc Fails To Adopt New Sanctions Package Against Russia

Canada: Landmark Legislation Passes to Narrow Intraprovincial Barriers and Speed Up Major Projects

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