Assessments

Canada

Mexico

United States

Iran

Japan

United Kingdom

India

Cargo ships June 19 off the coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal in Sharjah emirate, along the Gulf of Oman.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Takaichi Goes to India, an Unsteady U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 25, 2026

Colombia

Venezuela

China

Abelardo de la Espriella, who has since been declared president-elect, waves to supporters after casting his vote during the runoff election on June 21, 2026, in Barranquilla, Colombia. 

Energy

De la Espriella's administration will reverse many of the outgoing government's security, economic and social policies, restoring a hard-line anti-crime approach and deepening ties with the United States.

What de la Espriella's Victory Means for Colombia

Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez speaks with journalists following a session at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding the Essequibo region in The Hague on May 11. 

Risk-tolerant investors stand to benefit from unprecedented regulatory changes and direct resource access, but face the risk of reforms being unwound by a future Venezuelan government.


Venezuela's Outlook and Implications for Strategic Sectors, 6 Months After Maduro's Capture

Snapshots

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

Russia

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (left) and his wife disembark from the plane at Geneva Airport as they arrive to attend the G7 summit on June 16, 2026.

Lee's handling of the scandal and the resulting backlash could strengthen the conservative opposition and strain relations with the U.S. and Japan, but it could also facilitate closer ties with China.

Ballot Scandal Tests South Korean President Lee's Political, Foreign Policy Goals

Indonesia

The logo of Danantara Indonesia, the country's second sovereign wealth fund, is seen at its headquarters in Jakarta on March 31, 2026. 

Indonesia's new commodity oversight regime marks a major expansion of state control over strategic exports, but fiscal pressure, investor unease and street protests will likely push a softer monitoring model short of a full state takeover.

Managing Uncertainty Under Indonesia's Evolving Export Control Regime

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 18, 2026

Cockroach Janta Party founder Abhijeet Dipke (center) participates in a protest in Amritsar, India, on June 13, 2026.

Social Issues

While the Cockroach Janta Party has so far struggled to convert its online popularity into large street protests, worsening economic grievances among India's youth could catalyze the movement's growth.

Can India's Viral 'Cockroach' Party Mobilize a Gen Z Uprising?

Algeria

The Council of the National Assembly, Algeria's primary legislative body, is seen in Algiers.

Upcoming elections are unlikely to change the pro-president composition of Algeria's lower house, making significant policy change or reforms unlikely.

Algeria's Parliamentary Elections Will Yield Policy Continuity

Latest

Bahrain

Israel

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C, top) meets with GCC foreign ministers during his visit to the Middle East to discuss with Arab Gulf allies the interim deal between the U.S. and Iran on June 25 in Manama.

While Qatar and Saudi Arabia explore restoring trade ties with Iran, the United Arab Emirates is aligning its security with Israel and the United States.

Divergent Approaches to Iran Expose Gulf Arab Splits

Lebanon

Maps4media-processed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows a broad overview of the Strait of Hormuz on June 16, 2026.

U.S.-Iran talks will face increasingly large obstacles as negotiators approach more contentious topics, namely Iran's nuclear program.

For the U.S. and Iran, the Hardest Negotiations Lie Ahead

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting Iran and the United States at the negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, on Feb. 6, 2026.

While the deal will reduce the immediate threat of renewed conflict, shipping through Hormuz will likely resume only gradually amid the risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume and vessels face renewed harassment.

U.S.-Iran Deal Pauses Conflict, but the Path to Peace Remains Fraught

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Smoke rises following Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as seen from a position across the border in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on May 31, 2026.

Should Israel-Lebanon talks stall, the U.S. would be more likely to greenlight a broader campaign against Hezbollah, though it could also pressure Israel into a more comprehensive truce if Trump deems it necessary for an Iran deal.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Columns

On Geopolitics

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

Environment, Science & Technology

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Quarterly

Forecasts

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast

Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement that calls for the Israel Defense Forces' withdrawal from two locations in Lebanon, one north of the Litani River and one south of it, Axios reported on June 26.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Agrees to Limited Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon

Ukraine

Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov that Minsk does not want to be drawn into the war against Ukraine, saying he had repeatedly discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin why Belarus did not want to fight Ukrainians, BelTA reported on June 25.

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Indonesia's parliament approved rules allowing Danantara, the country's sovereign wealth fund run by the executive branch, to issue special bonds to help fund the government's spending priorities, Bloomberg reported on June 26.

Indonesia: New Bond Protections Raise Governance Risks

The European Commission is preparing plans to extend economic benefits to EU candidate countries before they formally join the bloc as part of a "gradual integration" strategy aimed at speeding enlargement without lowering entry standards, Politico reported on June 26.

EU: Commission Drafts Plan To Grant Candidates Economic Benefits Before Accession

Cyber

Science & Technology

The U.S. Trump administration preemptively asked U.S. artificial intelligence company OpenAI to limit the release of its GPT-5.6 model to a small set of government-approved organizations before releasing the model more widely, The Intercept reported on June 25.

U.S.: Trump Administration Asks OpenAI To Limit Release of Next Frontier Model

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Poland

At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdansk, Poland, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the transfer of the first 3.2 billion euro ($3.6 billion) tranche under the European Union's 90 billion euro Ukraine Support Loan and said the bloc would begin disbursing funds from a 6 billion euro drone-production package in the coming days, Interfax-Ukraine reported on June 25.

Ukraine, EU: EU Loan Anchors Gdansk Recovery Conference Amid Poland-Ukraine Row

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering sending her foreign minister to the July NATO summit in Turkey in her place, reportedly so she can attend to legislative matters ahead of the July 17 end of the Diet session, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported on June 25.

Japan: Amid Scandal, Takaichi May Skip NATO Summit, Diet Stonewalls Legislation

Tanzania

Tanzanian authorities and law enforcement officials have vowed to use force against planned demonstrations on July 7, known as Saba Saba Day, accusing protestors of planning to block roads, destroy public and private property and attack civilians, The Chanzo reported on June 24. 

Tanzania: Authorities Vow To Use Force Against Saba Saba Protests 

wo earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5 struck Venezuela's Yaracuy state in quick succession on the evening of June 24, marking the country's strongest earthquakes since 1900, The New York Times reported the same day.

Venezuela: Severe Earthquakes Cause Damage, Deaths in Caracas

Chile

Chile's Senate gave initial approval to the government's major economic bill with a 26-23 vote, La Tercera reported on June 24.

Chile: Senate Gives Initial Approval to Major Economic Bill

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Agrees to Limited Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Indonesia: New Bond Protections Raise Governance Risks

EU: Commission Drafts Plan To Grant Candidates Economic Benefits Before Accession

U.S.: Trump Administration Asks OpenAI To Limit Release of Next Frontier Model

Ukraine, EU: EU Loan Anchors Gdansk Recovery Conference Amid Poland-Ukraine Row

Japan: Amid Scandal, Takaichi May Skip NATO Summit, Diet Stonewalls Legislation

Tanzania: Authorities Vow To Use Force Against Saba Saba Protests

Venezuela: Severe Earthquakes Cause Damage, Deaths in Caracas

Chile: Senate Gives Initial Approval to Major Economic Bill

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