<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa

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The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

The Politics of Pipelines

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Crossing Borders

A Crude Recovery

Globalization

China in Transition

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

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As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

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On Geopolitics

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Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Canada

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Venezuela

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Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

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Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Chile

France

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

Ethiopia's Ministry of Finance announced that it had reached a preliminary debt restructuring agreement with an investor committee holding more than 45% of a $1 billion eurobond, Reuters reported on Jan. 3.

Ethiopia: Government Reaches Preliminary Restructuring Deal With Eurobond Creditors

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said that Turkey will dispatch an oil exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia to conduct its first deepwater exploration efforts in the country next month, without specifying where exploration works would take place, Reuters reported on Jan. 2.

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport 

Somaliland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's claim that the breakaway region would host an Israeli military base and accept resettled Palestinians, the Times of Israel reported on Jan. 1.

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

Guinean junta leader Mamady Doumbouya won the country's Dec. 28 presidential election with 86.72% of the vote, according to preliminary results from the country's General Directorate of Elections, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 31. 

Guinea: Junta Leader Doumbouya Elected in Low-Suspense Elections 

The Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group said it had overseen the deployment of interim civilian security and administration officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's eastern city of Uvira to take charge of security and administration until the deployment of a neutral force to the city, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 30.

Congo: M23-Linked Administration Emerges in Uvira After Rebels Withdraw Bulk of Forces 

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and allied groups seized the strategic Al-Taqatu' junction and neighboring localities between the towns of Kadugli and Dilling in the central South Kordofan state from the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, the Sudan Tribune reported on Dec. 30.

Sudan: RSF Makes Further Gains in Kordofan as SAF Reinforces Positions in Blue Nile State

Cote d'Ivoire's ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace, or RHDP, secured a large legislative majority in the country's Dec. 26 elections, winning 197 of the 255 seats in the National Assembly, Radio France Internationale reported Dec. 29.

Cote d'Ivoire: Ruling Party Secures Landslide Victory in Legislative Elections 

The governments of Somalia's Jubaland and Puntland states skipped a meeting convened by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to discuss plans to protect the country's territorial integrity following Israel's Dec. 26 recognition of the independence Somaliland, a breakaway region, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 29.

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Ethiopia: Government Reaches Preliminary Restructuring Deal With Eurobond Creditors

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

Guinea: Junta Leader Doumbouya Elected in Low-Suspense Elections

Congo: M23-Linked Administration Emerges in Uvira After Rebels Withdraw Bulk of Forces

Sudan: RSF Makes Further Gains in Kordofan as SAF Reinforces Positions in Blue Nile State

Cote d'Ivoire: Ruling Party Secures Landslide Victory in Legislative Elections

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

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